Market Roundup
• Japan GDP (YoY) (Q1) -0.7%,-0.2%forecast,2.4%previous
• Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q1) -0.2%, -0.1% forecast,0.6% previous
• Japan GDP Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q1) 1.4%, 0.8% forecast,0.8% previous
• Japan GDP External Demand (QoQ) (Q1) -0.8%, -0.6% forecast,0.7% previous
• Japan GDP Price Index (YoY) (Q1) 3.2%,3.2% forecast,2.9% previous
• Japan GDP Private Consumption (QoQ) (Q1) 0.0%,0.1% forecast,0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 08:00 Italian CPI (MoM) (Apr): 0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
•08:00 Italian CPI Ex Tobacco (YoY) (Apr): 1.7% previous
•08:00 Italian HICP (YoY) (Apr): 2.1% forecast, 2.1% previous
•08:00 Italian HICP (MoM) (Apr): 0.5% forecast, 1.6% previous
•09:00 Italian Trade Balance (Mar): €5.150B forecast, €4.466B previous
•09:00 Italian Trade Balance EU (Mar): -€0.36B previous
•09:00 Eurozone Trade Balance (Mar): €17.5B forecast, €24.0B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 11:00 SNB Vice Chairman Schlegel Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Friday as U.S. dollar weakened, following a series of weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data that reinforced expectations of further Fed rate cuts this year.The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.5% in April, following an upwardly revised flat reading in March.U.S. factory production declined in April, falling 0.4% month-on-month as output dropped in both durable and non-durable goods. Meanwhile, retail sales rose just 0.1% month-on-month, slightly above expectations for no change.A weaker-than-expected retail sales report combined with a soft PPI has heightened expectations that the Federal Reserve will implement at least two rate cuts this year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1332(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1385(May 7th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1160(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1106(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound strengthened on Friday as the U.S. dollar weakened following a series of economic releases that pointed to a slowdown in consumer spending. U.S. retail sales rose just 0.1% in April, down from a revised 1.7% gain in March, slightly exceeding expectations for no change. The modest increase reflected growing consumer caution amid an uncertain economic outlook. Adding to the soft tone, the Labor Department reported a sharper-than-expected 0.5% drop in producer prices for April, following a flat reading in March after revisions. The data raised fresh concerns about the momentum of the U.S. recovery, weighing on the dollar and supporting the pound. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3335(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3414(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3174(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3015(61.8%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar climbed on Friday, buoyed by a weaker U.S. dollar and easing global trade tensions. Market sentiment improved after the U.S. and China agreed to a trade truce, which investors saw as a meaningful step toward reducing the risk of a global economic slowdown. Attention now turns to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting next week. The central bank is widely expected to lower its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Tuesday, with two more cuts anticipated later this year. The expected easing comes as core inflation remains within the RBA’s target range.At GMT 05:28, the Australia dollar was up 0.35% to 0.6428 against the US dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6491(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6513(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6385(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6319(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped against the yen on Friday following a series of weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data that reinforced expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.Data showed April’s producer prices fell unexpectedly, retail sales growth slowed, and consumer prices rose less than anticipated. Adding to the cautious sentiment, Fed Governor Michael Barr noted on Thursday that while the U.S. economy remains on solid ground and inflation is trending toward the 2% target, trade policies have introduced uncertainty. Markets are now pricing in 57 basis points of rate cuts for 2025, with the first move expected in September. At GMT 06:37, the dollar was down 0.34% to 145.18 against the Japanese yen .Immediate resistance can be seen at 146.86 (38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.28(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 144.77(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 144.00(Psychological level)
Equities Recap
Asian stocks eased on Friday as fading optimism over U.S.-China trade talks dampened sentiment.
China A 50 was down 0.89% , South Korea's KOSPI was up 0.21 %,Hang Seng was down by 0.48%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell on Friday as easing trade war fears reduced demand for the metal as a safe-haven asset.
Spot gold shed 0.6% to $3,221.19 an ounce as of 0624 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.1% to $3,224.40.
Oil prices held steady on Friday as easing U.S.-China trade tensions supported the market, while concerns over a potential return of Iranian supply capped further increases.
Brent crude futures dipped 1 cent to $64.52 a barrel by 0326 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures added 2 cents to $61.64.
