Market Roundup
• New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (Nov): 64.9, 65.7 previous
•New Zealand NBNZ Own Activity (Nov): 48.0%, 45.9% previous
•Australia Building Capital Expenditure (MoM) (Q3): 1.1%, -3.8% previous
•Australia Plant/Machinery Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q3): 1.1%, -1.0% previous
•Australia Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q3): 1.1%, 0.9% forecast,-2.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 08:00 Spanish CPI (YoY) (Nov) 2.3% forecast, 1.8% previous
•08:00 Spanish CPI (MoM) (Nov) 0.6% previous
•08:00 Spanish HICP (YoY) (Nov) 2.4% forecast, 1.8% previous
•08:00 Spanish HICP (MoM) (Nov) 0.2% forecast, 0.4% previous
•09:00 Italian Business Confidence (Nov) 85.0 forecast, 85.8 previous
•09:00 Italian Consumer Confidence (Nov) 97.2 forecast, 97.4 previous
•09:00 CPI (MoM) (Nov) 0.7% previous
•09:00 EU CPI (YoY) (Nov) 2.1% previous
•09:00 EUR CPI (YoY) (Nov) 2.4% previous
•09:00 EUCPI (MoM) (Nov) 0.5% previous
•09:00 EU CPI (YoY) (Nov) 1.8% previous
•10:00 EU Business and Consumer Survey (Nov) 95.1, 95.6 previous
•10:00 EU Business Climate (Nov) -0.96 previous
•10:00 EU Consumer Confidence (Nov) -13.7, -12.5 previous
•10:00 EU Consumer Inflation Expectation (Nov) 13.3 previous
•10:00 EU Selling Price Expectations (Nov) 6.5 previous
•10:00 EU Services Sentiment (Nov) 6.2, 7.1 previous
•13:00 German CPI (YoY) (Nov) 2.3%, 2.0% previous
•13:00 German CPI (MoM) (Nov) -0.2%, 0.4% previous
•13:00 German HICP (MoM) (Nov) -0.5%, 0.4% previous
•13:00 German HICP (YoY) (Nov) 2.6%, 2.4% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•13:00 ECB's Elderson Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower on Thursday as investors awaited German inflation data for further clues on German economy. German inflation figures and France's budget challenges took center stage, with concerns over the economic and political stability of Europe's key economies, while the threat of U.S. tariffs continued to cast a shadow over the region. With U.S. markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, trading volumes were light and market moves muted in Asia. Futures pointed to a modest opening for European stock markets. The euro was last down at $1.0542.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0592(Nov 27th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0634(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0531(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0415(23.6%fib)
GBP/USD: The pound eased slightly on Thursday as sentiment remained weak as investors weighed the potential for a tariff war triggered by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's policies. Data showed U.S. consumer spending rose solidly in October, indicating the economy maintained a strong growth pace. However, progress in easing inflation has stalled recently. Over the 12 months through October, core inflation, which the Federal Reserve monitors for monetary policy, increased by 2.8%, up from 2.7% in September. Investors are still absorbing Trump's promises to impose a 25% tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada, along with a 10% tariff on goods from China once he takes office in January, a move that could provoke retaliation from those countries. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2709(Nov 20th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2755(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2652(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2526(23.6%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar dipped against dollar o Thursday as investors assessed Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate outlook .The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has kept its cash rate at 4.35% for a year now and seems in no hurry to start cutting given still elevated core inflation. Markets imply the RBA will only ease to around 3.80% by the end of next year, compared with 3.30% for the RBNZ. The Australian dollar drifted 0.2% lower to $0.6480 ahead of an 0855 GMT speech from Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock, which is expected to offer guidance around the central bank's sensitivity to inflation data. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6538(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6580(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6466(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6436(Nov 26th low).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Thursday as investors digested the latest economic data and the potential impact of policies from the incoming U.S. administration, including tariff threats. Investor reactions to the data reflected concerns over President-elect Donald Trump's late Monday threat to impose a 25% tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada upon taking office in January, along with an additional 10% tariff on goods from China. Trading is expected to be light due to U.S. Thanksgiving holiday kicking off from Thursday. The dollar index was marginally higher on Thursday to 106.24. The yen weakened slightly through the Asia session. But at 151.59 per dollar, it is up 2.4% this week and has recovered losses suffered since the U.S. election. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.19 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.15 (SMA9). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 150.78 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 150.23(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian shares fell on Thursday, and the dollar strengthened slightly as investors assessed U.S. data showing that progress in slowing inflation had stalled, despite the economy's resilience. Meanwhile, rising geopolitical concerns kept risk sentiment subdued.
Japan's Nikkei was up by 0.62%,South Korean kospi was down 0.03%, China A50 lost 0.94%, while Hang Seng dropped 1.23 %.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices edged lower on Thursday following an unexpected rise in U.S. gasoline inventories, as investors turned their attention to this weekend's OPEC+ meeting to discuss oil output policy.
Brent crude futures fell by 14 cents, or 0.2%, to $72.69 per barrel by 0401 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were also down 14 cents, or 0.2%, at $68.58 a barrel.
Gold prices edged lower on Thursday as investors analyzed a wave of economic data indicating persistent U.S. inflation, leading to expectations that the Federal Reserve may proceed cautiously with further interest rate cuts.
Spot gold fell 0.1% to $2,633.31 per ounce, as of 0553 GMT.U.S. gold futures shed 0.4% to $2,632.80.
