Market Roundup
•Australia MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) (Nov) - 0.2%, 0.3% previous
•Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (Nov) -1.3%, 0.7% previous
•Australia Building Approvals (YoY) (Oct) 12.7%, 18.1% previous
•Australia Building Approvals (MoM) (Oct) 4.2%, 1.2% forecast, 5.8% previous
•Australia Business Inventories (MoM) (Q3) -0.9%, -0.2% forecast, 0.5% previous
•Australia Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) (Q3) -4.6%, 0.6% forecast, -6.8% previous
•Australia Company Profits Pre-Tax (QoQ) (Q3) 1.6%, -1.7% previous
•Australia Private House Approvals (Oct) -5.2%, 2.2% previous
•Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) 0.6%, 0.4% forecast, 0.1% previous
•Japan Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 49.0, 49.0 forecast, 49.2 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 08:45 Italian Manufacturing PMI (Nov) - 46.1 forecast, 46.9 previous
•08:50 French Manufacturing PMI (Nov) - 43.2 forecast, 44.5 previous
•08:55 German Manufacturing PMI (Nov) - 43.2, forecast, 43.0 previous
•09:00 Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate (Oct) - 6.1% forecast, 6.1% previous
•09:00 Greek Manufacturing PMI (Nov) - 51.2 previous
•09:00 EU Manufacturing PMI (Nov) - 45.2, forecast, 46.0 previous
•09:30 UK Manufacturing PMI (Nov) - 48.6 forecast, 49.9 previous
•10:00 Italian GDP (YoY) (Q3) - 0.4% forecast, 0.4% previous
•10:00 Italian GDP (QoQ) (Q3) - 0.0% forecast, 0.0% previous
10:00 EU Unemployment Rate (Oct) - 6.3%, previous: 6.3%
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•10:00 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Monday as dollar as traders grappled with political uncertainty in France.France's far right National Rally leaders said on Sunday that the government had rebuffed its calls for more budget concessions, raising the chances of a no confidence vote in the coming days that could topple Prime Minister Michel Barnier.The European Central Bank is seen cutting rates this month, with markets implying a 27% chance it might even ease by 50 basis points on Dec. 12. The outlook for monetary policy in the region added to the drag on the euro, with the European Central Bank seen cutting rates this month. Markets see a 27% chance it might even ease by 50 basis points on Dec. 12. The single currency slumped 0.53% to $1.0520 earlier in the day after touching a one-week high of $1.0597 on Friday .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0567(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0614(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0478(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0358(Lower BB)
GBP/USD: The pound dipped on Monday as dollar pushed higher as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump warned BRICS member countries against replacing the dollar or face 100% tariffs. In a surprise change of tone, Trump on Saturday demanded that BRICS member countries commit to not creating a new currency or supporting another currency that could replace the dollar or face 100% tariffs. Sterling slid 0.4% to $1.2690, after touching $1.2750 on Friday for the first time since Nov. 13. This week, key U.S. economic data will be released that could influence market expectations for monetary policy. Among the most significant reports are the U.S. job openings, the ADP employment report and the non-farm payrolls report. In addition to these data points, a few Federal Reserve officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, are scheduled to speak. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2755(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2800 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2652(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2519(23.6%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar dipped against dollar Monday as firmed greenback weighed on Australian dollar despite upbeat Australian retail sales data.US dollar firmed after U.S. President-elect Trump on Saturday demanded that the BRICS countries commit to not creating a new currency or supporting another currency that would replace the U.S. dollar or face 100% tariffs. Australian retail sales firmed for a third straight month in October as tax cuts flowed through to wage packets and consumers became more confident that interest rates would not increase again, although policy easing still looked distant.Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Monday showed retail sales rose 0.6% in October from September, when they grew a meagre 0.1%. Analysts had looked for a gain of 0.4% in October. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6538(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6580(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6470(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6436(Nov 26th low).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined to hit six week low against the yen on Monday as comments from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump boosted greenback . Trump on Saturday demanded that BRICS member countries commit to not creating a new currency or supporting another currency that could replace the dollar or face 100% tariffs.Over the weekend, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the next interest rate hikes are "nearing in the sense that economic data are on track," following figures showing Tokyo inflation picked up in October.Data out Monday showed business investment running at a healthy 8.1% clip in the third quarter, encouraging markets to price in a 63% chance the BOJ will hike by a quarter point to 0.5% at its policy meeting on Dec. 18-19. The dollar regained 0.4% on the yen to 150.71 , having shed 3.3% last week in its worst run since July. Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.59 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.58 (50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.67 (50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.10(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks advanced on Monday buoyed by a rally in tech and China shares.
Japan's Nikkei N225 rose 0.8% , South Korea's KOSPI gained 0.38%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng inched 0.16% higher, and mainland Chinese blue chips added 0.6%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices snapped a four-session rally to trade lower on Monday, pressured by a firmer dollar and profit-booking, while investors awaited key U.S. economic data for cues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook.
Spot gold was down 1.1% at $2,625.69 per ounce, as of 0539 GMT. U.S. gold futures edged 1.2% lower to $2,648.40.
Oil prices rose on Monday, supported by strong factory activity in China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, and heightened tensions in the Middle East as Israel resumed attacks on Lebanon despite a ceasefire agreement.
Brent crude futures climbed 57 cents, or 0.79%, to $72.41 a barrel by 0700 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $68.58 a barrel, up 58 cents, or 0.85%.
