- NZ Q2 output-based GDP +0.4% q/q, +2.4% y/y, +0.5% and +2.5% eyed, average annual growth 3%, 2.9% eyed, expenditure-based GDP +0.2% q/q, +0.5% eyed.
- Fed- To be or not to be, dovish hike or hawkish hold.
- Japan August trade deficit Y569.7 bln, exports +3.1% y/y, imports -3.1%, Y541.3 bln, +4.0% and -2.2% eyed, exports to US +11.1%, Asia +1.1%, China -4.6%.
- Japan August crude oil import volume +3.3% y/y, LNG +0.2%, thermal coal -5.0%.
- MoF flow data week-ended Sept 12 - Japanese buy net Y385.8 bln foreign stocks, Y514.0 bln bonds, sell Y21.6 bln bills; foreign investors sell net trln Japanese stocks, buy Y782.4 bln bonds, Y269.0 bln bills.
- Japan GPIF, official pension funds sell net Y957.7 bln JGBs in Q2, Y406.8 bln stocks, buy trln foreign bonds.
- Japan end-June household financial assets Y1717 trln, fresh record, foreign JGB holdings Y95 trln, 9.2% of total, BoJ holdings Y295 trln, 28.5%.
- Reuter's poll - Japan Inc wary of China impact on profits, autos especially.
- Carlyle Group to launch Y120 bln fund to invest in Japanese companies.
- China SAFE - To intensify crackdown on illegal FX activities, no basis for large-scale, "abnormal" capital outflows, CNY downward pressure "released".
- Foreign buying of long-term US securities -$7.9 bln in July, net overall capital flow +$141.9 bln however, June rev -$129.7 bln, China Tsy holdings $1.241 trln, Japan $1.198 trln.
- Australia CCI - Manufacturing beneficiary of low rates, weaker AUD.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Italy July trade balance global/EU; last bln and E600 mln surpluses.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK August retail sales, +0.2% m/m, +3.8% y/y eyed; last +0.1%, +4.2%.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK August ex-fuel, +0.1% m/m, +3.9% y/y eyed; last +0.4%, +4.3%.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US August housing starts, 1.17 mln AR eyed; last 1.21 mln, +0.2% m/m.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US August bldg permits, 1.16 mln AR eyed; last 1.13 mln, -15.5% m/m.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US Q2 current account balance, $111.3 bln deficit eyed; last $113.3 bln deficit.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US weekly initial jobless claims, 275k eyed; last 275k.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US September Philly Fed business sentiment index, 6.0 eyed; last 8.3.
Key Events Ahead
- (0145 ET/0545 GMT) Swiss SECO economic forecasts.
- (0235 ET/0635 GMT) BOJ Gov Kuroda speech in Tokyo.
- (0300 ET/0700 GMT) ECB economic bulletin.
- (0310 ET/0710 GMT) Riksbank DepGov Floden speech in Stockholm.
- (0330 ET/0730 GMT) SNB policy announcement, no change eyed, 3-mo LIBOR target neg 1.25-0.25%.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Buba Beermann speech in Frankfurt.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) Spain E4-5 bln 0.25/1.15/2.15% 2018/20/25 Bono auctions.
- (0450 ET/0850 GMT) France E7-8 bln zero/0.25% 2018/20 BTan auctions.
- (0450 ET/0850 GMT) France E1-1.5 bln 0.1/0.7/1.8% 2025/30/40 index-linked OAT auctions.
- (1130 ET/1530 GMT) ECB/Austria CB Nowotny speech in Vienna.
- (1400 ET/1800 GMT) FOMC policy announcement, 50-50 on 25 bp Fed funds rate hike.
- (1430 ET/1830 GMT) FOMC Chair Yellen press conference.
- (1930 ET/2330 GMT) RBA Gov Stevens parliamentary testimony.
FX Recap
EURUSD: Pair is trading at just below 1.1300 levels. It made intraday high at 1.1317 and low at 1.1285. Data released on Wednesday supported the 'wait' camp, with the US CPI sliding 0.1% month-on-month in August, and core inflation rising only 0.1%. The common currency was also pressured by ECB's Constancio words, as the vice-president of the Central Bank said that they are ready to extend QE if needed. Initial support is seen around at 1.1015 and resistance at 1.1363 levels.
USDJPY: Japan's trade deficit hit an eight-month high in August, despite continuous declines in imports, as exports growth was the weakest since May. The trade gap expanded from ¥268.1 billion in July to ¥569.7 billion last month, according to new customs data on Thursday, coming in slightly weaker than the forecast deficit of ¥540 billion. On Tuesday, with the release of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Statement on Monetary Policy, central bankers assessed that exports had recently been "more or less flat, due to the effects of the slowdown in emerging economies." Currently pair is trading at 120.76 levels and made intraday low at 120.34 levels. Initial resistance is seen at 123.20 and support is seen at 118.42 levels.
GBPUSD: Sterling touched intraday highs vs the dollar and euro after the data showed UK earnings, excluding bonuses, grew at their fastest rate in more than six years in the three months to July. Significantly low inflation in the UK should help to maintain stronger real earnings, thus easing the squeeze on households' budgets and boosting domestic demand for goods and services. Today UK will release retail sales data for the further directions. Moreover, markets remain wary ahead of Thursday's Fed decision, on increased speculations that the Fed rate hike could be pushed back to early 2016, thus reducing the demand for the US currency. It made intraday high at $1.5520 and low at $1.5488 levels. Initial support is seen at 1.5185 and resistance is seen around 1.5725 levels.
NZDUSD: The New Zealand economy expanded 0.4% in the June quarter, according to Statistics New Zealand data released on Thursday, missing the market forecast of 0.6% growth, which was also the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) estimate. The New Zealand dollar fell 0.30% to $0.6345 on Thursday afternoon in Wellington, from $0.6363 at the close of trade in New York on Wednesday, hitting an intraday low of $0.6337 after the GDP figures were released. Pair made an intraday high at 0.6377 and low at 0.6332 levels. Pair is currently trading at 0.6357 levels. Initial support is seen at 0.6195 and resistance at 0.6511 levels.
AUDUSD: The Australian dollar benefited from a significant rebound in Asian stocks in the previous session, while a weaker US dollar following US inflation data pushed the AUD/USD to its highest since late August. The sentiment has reversed however, as the FOMC decision looms, dragging the AUD further below $0.72. The US consumer price index fell 0.1% in August, just as the markets were expecting, after edging 0.1% higher in July. Today's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision is seen as the most closely watched event in years. It made intraday high at 0.7207 and low at 0.7177 levels. Initial support is seen at 0.6908 and resistance at 0.7245 levels.
Equity Recap
Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index surged 1.32% to 18,411.49 points within the first hour of trade, while Tokyo's broader Topix gauge jumped 1.02% to 1,487.56 points.
Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng index advanced 0.70% to 22,119.88 points shortly after the opening bell, but mainland China's benchmark Shanghai Composite fell 0.59% to 3,133.78 points at the same time.
Korea's benchmark Kospi index jumped 0.59% to 1,987.15 points this morning in Seoul.
The benchmark Australian S&P/ASX 200 index rallied 1.64% to 5,182.40 points in Sydney, with energy stocks racing ahead and banks making solid gains.
New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.62% to 5,703.38 points this afternoon in Wellington.
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index closes up 0.97 pct at 5,148.10 points.
Tokyo's Nikkei average unofficially closes up 1.43 pct at 18,432.27.
Treasury Recap
Japan 03-month treasury discount bill auction lowest price 100.0025, average price 100.0052, bids accepted at lowest price 40.2646 pct. BOJ offers to supply 800 bln Yen in funds at a fixed rate for 9/24-12/21 at all offices.
10-year US treasury yield at 2.283 percent vs US close of 2.303 percent on Wednesday.
New Zealand government bonds eased, sending yields as much as 4 ticks higher on the long end of the curve.
Australian government bond futures fell to one-month lows, with the three-year bond contract off 5 ticks at 98.040. The 10-year contract was down 4.5 ticks to 97.1250.
Commodity Recap
Gold was trading near its highest in a week on Thursday, adding to overnight gains from its biggest jump in nearly a month, as sluggish U.S. inflation data eased fears the Federal Reserve would hike interest rates later this session. Spot gold had ticked up 0.1 percent to $1,120.60 an ounce at 0345 GMT, near a one-week high of $1,124.30 reached in the previous session. The metal gained 1.3 percent on Wednesday in its biggest daily jump since Aug. 20.
Oil was trading little changed on Thursday, following a huge rally in the prior session as the latest inventory report revealed a fall for crude stocks, with a weaker US dollar making the commodity more attractive for investors. Futures for WTI dropped 0.02% to trade at $47.14 per barrel, while Brent futures were traded 0.06% up at $49.78 per barrel.
