Market Roundup
- Japanese markets remain closed for a third day in celebration of a national holiday.
- New Zealand Consumer confidence at 109.6 in Q1 from 110.7 previous qtr.
- New Zealand s/adj net permanent and long term visitors +6070 in February.
- Australia PM moves federal
budget forward to May 3.
- Seeks to pass labour reforms, will dissolve parliament if unsuccessful.
- Federal election to be held July 2 if parliament dissolved.
- South Korea exports March 1-20 down 19.2%, imports down 23%.
- Brexit could cost Britain GBP100 bill & a million jobs – CBI.
- Sterling unsettled by politics.
- NZX50 to fresh record high.
- China February LNG imports up 12.1% on year.
- China February gasoline exports up 169.5% on year, diesel exports up massive 587%
- RBNZ to investigate alleged leak of Mar 10 OCR decision.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0500 ET/ 0900 GMT) Euro zone current account, consensus 26.3B, previous 25.5B.
- (0700 ET/ 1100 GMT) UK March CBI industrial Trends order, consensus-14, previous -17.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US existing home sales for February, consensus -2.2%, previous 0.4%.
Key Events Ahead
- (1240 ET/1640 GMT) Dennis Lockhart speech.
FX Recap
USD: Dollar bulls were hit hard after the Fed last week held interest rates steady and cut in half the number of projected quarter-point hikes to just two this year. All that left the dollar index little changed at 95.062, not far from a five-month trough of 94.578 set on Friday.
EUR/USD: The euro was little changed against the U.S. dollar at $1.1276 EUR= as investors waited for European markets to open. Pair remains well supported above $1.1250 and trading around $1.1270 levels. Short term bias remains bullish till the time pair holds key support level at $1.1204. A daily close above key resistance will drag the parity towards $1.1376 marks. On the down side, key support level is seen at $1.1175/ $1.1057 marks.
USD/JPY: The safe-haven yen was broadly firmer on Monday, particularly against its New Zealand and Australian peers, as the mood turned sour with most Asian share markets down. The U.S. dollar and euro both eased 0.2 percent, to 111.35 yen and 125.59 yen respectively. Pair remains well supported below 112.00 and continues to gain against US counterpart. Pair is likely to consolidate below 114.87 levels. A daily close above 114.87 is required to confirm the bullish trend. A daily close below key support level will drag the parity towards at 110.98/ 108.75/107.51 marks thereafter. On the top side, key resistance levels are seen at 114.87/115.96 levels. A public holiday in Japan and an absence of fresh drivers meant there was no conviction to push the market either way.
GBP/USD: Sterling was a notable underperformer after British Prime Minister David Cameron was forced into a hasty cabinet reshuffle on Saturday following the shock resignation of a senior minister. The pound was marked as far down as $1.4430, but has since returned to $1.4447, or 0.2 percent lowers on the day. Short term bias remains bearish till the time pair holds key resistance at $1.4514 level. A daily close above $1.4504 will take the parity towards key resistance at $1.4602. Alternatively, a sustained break below $1.4357 will turn the bias slightly bearish and drag the parity down towards $1.4150 marks.
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar fell to $0.7584, having dropped a cent from Friday when it touched $0.7681, a level not seen since July last year. Still, the Aussie is sitting on steep gains, having jumped 6 percent this month. If sustained, it would be the largest monthly rise since 2011. Intraday bias remains bearish till the time pair holds key resistance at 0.7680 levels. A sustained close above it will drag the parity towards 0.7725 levels. On the downside, a break below $0.7533 support levels will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.7365 low.
NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar edged down over the weekend to $0.6773 after hitting a five-month high of $0.6874 on Friday. The Kiwi's losses came as the U.S. dollar edged up after two straight days of selling. The Kiwi was expected to trade between $0.6760 and $0.6860, having gained 2.8 percent so far this month. Pair hovers above key support level at $0.6750 marks and short term bias remains bearish for the moment till the time pair holds key resistance at $0.6802. Key support was found at $0.6585, with resistance at $0.6885 levels.
Equities Recap
Japanese markets remain closed for a third day in celebration of a national holiday.
Chinese markets have started the week on an upbeat note. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was trading 0.33% higher at 20,740.44 points on Monday morning, and the Shanghai Composite rose 0.84% to 2,980.09 points in the first few minutes of trade.
South Korea's Kospi index slipped 0.24% to 1,986.82 points on Monday.
Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index was trading 0.40% lower to 5,162.60 points on Monday afternoon in Sydney.
New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index was trading 0.16% higher at 6,634.10 points on Monday afternoon in Wellington.
Commodities Recap
Crude oil slid for a second session on Monday, falling further from last week's 2016 highs on concerns over a supply glut after the U.S rig count rose for the first time since December. U.S. crude fell 40 cents, or 1.0 percent, to $39.04 a barrel by 0001 GMT. The market on Friday climbed to $41.20 a barrel, its highest since early December, before losing ground to settle down nearly 2 percent at $39.44.
Spot gold eased on Monday, but found support from a weaker dollar as the U.S. and European central banks kept alive the prospect of cheaper capital for longer. Spot gold edged down by 0.2 percent to $1,252.21 an ounce by 0208 GMT, having finished last week a tad higher. Prices are consolidating below a 14-month peak of $1,282.51 struck on March 11, which was the loftiest since Jan 2015. Prices had slumped below $1,050 a tonne in December. U.S. gold was eased by 0.1 percent to $1,253.10.
Treasuries Recap
New Zealand government bonds rose, sending yields 1 basis point lower along the curve.
Australian government bond futures eased, with the three-year bond contract off 3 ticks at 98.040. The 10-year contract also shed 3 ticks to 97.4200, while the 20-year contract slipped 3.5 ticks to 96.8500.
South Korea Central bank says sells 91-day monetary stabilisation bonds at yield of 1.55 pct.
Malaysia will sell 4.0 bln ringgit Islamic government bonds.
Thailand 10 bln baht, 93-day Treasury bill average accepted yield 1.32069 pct. Thailand 5 bln baht, 28-day Treasury bill average accepted yield 1.31568 pct.
