Market Roundup
• Japan PPI (MoM) (Dec)0.1%,0.1%forecast,0.3% previous
• Japan PPI (YoY) (Dec)2.4%, 2.4% forecast,2.7% previous
• Australia MI Inflation Expectations (Jan) 4.6%, 4.7% previous
• Australia Reserve Assets Total (Dec) 113.9B, 113.1B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 07:00 UK GDP (MoM) (Nov)0.1% forecast,-0.1% previous
• 07:00 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Nov)0.4% forecast,0.5% previous
• 07:00 UK Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov) 0.2% forecast,1.1% previous
• 07:00 UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Nov)-0.2% forecast,-0.1% previous
• 07:00 UK Trade Balance (Nov)-20.30B forecast,-22.54B previous
• 07:00 UK Trade Balance Non-EU (Nov)-10.26B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Thursday as dollar gained after U.S. President Donald Trump calmed market anxiety about potential U.S. military action against Iran. At the White House, however, Trump suggested he was adopting a wait-and-see posture toward the crisis.Trump told reporters that he has been told that killings in the Iranian government's crackdown on the protests were subsiding and that he believes there is currently no plan for large-scale executions.The dollar was knocked back at the start of the week after the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell called out the Trump administration's decision to subpoena him, saying it amounted to intimidating the Fed into delivering easier monetary policy. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was steady at 99.129, near a one-month high it touched on Wednesday. The index was flat for the week. The euro eased to $1.1636. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1688(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1730(SMA20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1623(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1601(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower against dollar on Thursday ahead of UK GDP data that might help shape expectations for Bank of England monetary policy in the coming months.Investors have warmed to the pound so far in 2026. Weekly data from the U.S. regulator shows they cut their bearish sterling positions by the most in five months in the first week of January .Consumer price data lands next week, along with monthly jobs figures, while GDP data is due on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters expect the UK economy to have contracted by 0.2% in the three months to November, leaving the annual rate of growth at 1.1%.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3499(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3566(Jan 12th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3461(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3381(61.8%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased on Thursday as geopolitical tensions weighed on global risk sentiment, while investors continued to assess a RBA policy outlook.U.S. President Donald Trump toned down warnings of strikes on Iran over its civil unrest, even as Washington withdrew some personnel from Middle East bases after Iran warned it would target U.S. bases if attacked.The market currently assigns a 27% probability to a February quarter-point rate hike by the Reserve Bank, increasing to 76% by May. Australia’s consumer inflation expectations eased slightly to 4.6% in January 2025 from 4.7% previously, indicating households still expect elevated price pressures. Focus now shifts to Q4 CPI later this month, while next week’s December jobs report is also expected to offer additional insights. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6712(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6754(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6678(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6654(38.2%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher, but gains were capped as traders remained wary of intervention, with election risks stoking fears of more fiscal stimulus .Takaichi’s plan to dissolve the lower house and call a snap election has fueled speculation, triggering a recent selloff in the yen and Japanese government bonds.Early election fears have raised fiscal concerns over Japan’s heavy debt, pushing the yen toward intervention levels and complicating the Bank of Japan’s rate outlook.Earlier this week, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said she and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent discussed concerns over the yen’s “one-sided depreciation” during a bilateral meeting.The yen has fallen nearly 5% against the dollar since Sanae Takaichi became prime minister in October, as investors worry about her spending plans. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.00(Psychological level) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.12(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.42(SMA20) a break below could take the pair towards 156.01 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks pulled back Thursday, led by Japan’s Nikkei retreating from its peak, while tech shares paused ahead of TSMC earning
Hang seng down 0.39%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 0.44% ,South Korea’s KOSPI was up at 1.58%
Commodities Recap
Gold dipped on Thursday as investors booked profits after three record-high sessions, while Trump’s softer stance on the Fed chair and Iran reduced safe-haven demand.
Spot gold was down 0.8% at $4,584.03 per ounce, as of 0322 GMT. In the previous session, bullion hit a record high of $4,642.72.
U.S. gold futures for February delivery fell 1% to $4,587.70.
Oil prices retreated from multi-month highs on Thursday and safe-haven gold eased back from a record peak after U.S. President Donald Trump calmed market anxiety about potential U.S. military action against Iran.
Brent crude futures dropped 2.4% to $64.94, and Nymex futures also sank 2.4% to $60.51, from as high as $66.82 and $62.36, respectively, in the previous session.
