Market Roundup
•Australia Unemployment Rate (Oct): 4.1%, 4.1% previous
•Australia Full Employment Change (Oct): 9.7K, 48.8K previous
•Australia Participation Rate (Oct): 67.1%, 67.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 08:00 Spanish Core CPI (YoY) (Oct): 2.5% forecast, 2.4% previous
•08:00 Spanish CPI (MoM) (Oct): 0.6%% forecast, -0.6% previous
• 08:00 Spanish CPI (YoY) (Oct): 1.8%% forecast, 1.5% previous
• 08:00 Spanish HICP (MoM) (Oct): 0.4%% forecast, -0.1% previous
•08:00 Spanish HICP (YoY) (Oct): 1.8%% forecast, 1.7% previous
•10:00 EU Employment Change (YoY) (Q3): 0.8% previous
•10:00 EU Employment Change (QoQ) (Q3): 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•10:00 EU Employment Overall (Q3): 168,332.9K previous
•10:00 EU GDP (QoQ) (Q3): 0.4% forecast, 0.2% previous
•10:00 EU GDP (YoY) (Q3): 0.9% forecast, 0.6% previous
•10:00 EU Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep): -1.3% forecast, 1.8% previous
•10:00 EU Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep): -2.0% forecast, 0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•12:30 ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro slipped lower against the dollar on Thursday as dollar continued to rally steered by Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election.The dollar had dipped briefly on Wednesday after a measure of U.S. consumer inflation met economists' forecasts, keeping the Fed on track to reduce rates at their meeting in December. Trump's proposed tax cuts and tariffs are viewed as inflationary and are likely to maintain relatively high U.S. interest rates, which will support the dollar and put pressure on the currencies of its trade partners. The euro slumped to its weakest since Nov. 2023 at $1.0546 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0611(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0671(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0538`(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0521(Lower BB)
GBP/USD: Sterling declined on Thursday as dollar headed for a fifth straight daily gain fuelled by higher yields and Donald Trump's election victory. Higher trade tariffs and tighter immigration under the incoming Trump administration are projected to fuel inflation, potentially slowing the Federal Reserve's rate cutting cycle longer term. Expectations for deeper deficit spending are lifting Treasury yields, providing the dollar with additional support. Long-term Treasury yields also rose on Wednesday, and extended that advance in the Asian morning, pushing as high as 4.483% for the first time since July 1. Sterling hit its lowest on the dollar in three months at $1.2683.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2753(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2818(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2671 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2635(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar fell to a new three-month low on Thursday as the U.S. dollar continued its strong performance. The outcome of elections in the world's largest economy has boosted the dollar and U.S. bond yields, hurting other market currencies. According to data released on Thursday, employment in Australia increased by 15,900 in October, breaking a four-month run of disproportionate rises and narrowly missing market projections of a 25,000 increase. However, while hiring vigor was matched by a substantial increase in the workforce, unemployment remained at a historically low 4.1%, where it has been since April. Investors believed that the data was not poor enough to alter the Reserve Bank of Australia's stable policy outlook, which the central bank's head had already maintained. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6500(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6539(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6456(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6442(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose sharply against the yen on Thursday as yen was pressured by surging greenback triggered by Donald Trump's election victory. A decision to increase at the December 18–19 meeting will surely be heavily influenced by the domestic inflation implications of ongoing yen depreciation, which have lately been brought to the attention of the BOJ Policy Board. The corporate products price index released on Wednesday shows signs of fresh inflation pressures, despite the fact that inflation may have moderated somewhat during the fall with Tokyo core consumer prices returning to around the BOJ's 2% target and the overall Japanese CPI slightly lower in September. Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.16 (23.6 %fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.76(Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.36(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 154.50(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian equities sank significantly on Thursday as investors examined the monetary policy and inflation forecast of the world's largest economy.
Japan's Nikkei 225 was down by 0.61%, South Korean KOSPI was up by 0.39% while, Hang Seng was down by 2.08%
Commodities Recap
Oil prices fell in early trade on Thursday, reversing the majority of the previous session's gains, driven down by concerns about rising global output amid slowing demand growth, with a stronger dollar worsening the declines.
Brent crude futures fell 35 cents, or 0.5%, to $71.93 a barrel by 0400 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) futures declined 42 cents, or 0.6%, to $68.01.
Gold fell for the fifth straight session on Thursday, reaching its lowest level in eight weeks, weighed down by a stronger US dollar and rising Treasury yields amid uncertainty over the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.
Spot gold was down 0.4% at $2,563.45 per ounce, as of 0505 GMT, after hitting its lowest since Sept. 19 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures fell 0.7% to $2,568.30.
