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In the third quarter of 2024, Australian inflation dropped to its lowest level in three and a half years, driven by government subsidies on electricity and declining petrol prices. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2%, slightly under the 0.3% forecast. Annual inflation now stands at 2.8%, down from 3.8%, aligning with the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) 2-3% target range for the first time since 2021.
Key Drivers of Lower Inflation
Electricity prices saw a significant decrease of 17.3% due to government rebates, while petrol costs dropped by 6.2% in the third quarter. For September alone, CPI rose by a modest 2.1% year-on-year, marking the slowest pace since July 2021.
Sticky Core Inflation and RBA’s Policy Outlook
While headline inflation shows improvement, core inflation, measured by the trimmed mean, rose by 0.8% in the quarter, slightly above the projected 0.7%. However, the annual core inflation rate eased to 3.5% from 4.0%. Despite signs of cooling, services inflation remained high at 4.6%, with minimal change from the prior quarter’s 4.5%.
The RBA has maintained its current policy rate at 4.35% since November, assessing it as sufficiently restrictive to guide inflation to its target without harming employment growth. With the next rate review set for Tuesday, the central bank will consider its updated economic forecasts.
