BOJ Expected to Hold Rates Amid U.S. Tariff Uncertainty, Year-End Hike Still in Sight

Most economists now believe the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will keep interest rates steady through September, as it monitors the economic impact of U.S. tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. According to a Reuters survey conducted from May 7–13, 95% of economists (59 out of 62) forecast no change at the upcoming June 17 policy meeting. This marks a shift from last month, as 67% now expect the benchmark rate to stay at 0.50% in Q3, compared to just 36% in April.

Despite the hold, 52% of respondents still anticipate at least a 25-basis-point hike by year-end, maintaining the December forecast at 0.75%. The revised median forecast for end-September now stands at 0.50%, down from 0.75% last month. Markets have already priced in a 19 basis point increase for 2025, signaling investor expectations for tightening.

BOJ officials, including Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida, remain cautiously optimistic, projecting continued growth in wages and prices despite near-term economic slowdown and inflation moderation. Economists like Masato Koike of Sompo Institute Plus stress that the BOJ needs time to assess Trump’s trade policies before proceeding with further hikes.

Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement included a 10% levy on all nations except Canada, Mexico, and China. Japan faces a 24% rate starting in July unless a trade deal is secured. Japanese officials, including chief negotiator Ryosei Akazawa, aim to resume talks with U.S. counterparts in mid-May.

A majority of analysts (55%) expressed approval or partial approval of Japan’s handling of tariff negotiations, reflecting cautious confidence in the government’s approach. Overall, the BOJ appears set to proceed carefully, balancing domestic monetary goals with external geopolitical pressures.