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The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is widely anticipated to keep its benchmark interest rate steady at 0.5% during its July 31 policy meeting, maintaining a hawkish tone amid persistent inflation and ongoing political and trade uncertainties. This would mark the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change following January’s 25-basis-point hike.
Market analysts suggest that while the BOJ is cautious about immediate hikes, it has signaled readiness to raise rates later in 2025, particularly if Japan’s economy and inflation strengthen. Political instability is a key factor, as Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party recently lost its upper house majority, raising concerns about potential legislative gridlock.
Trade tensions also weigh on the outlook. Despite Tokyo and Washington signing a trade deal in July, Japan still faces a 15% U.S. tariff on exports, with details of the agreement yet to be released. ANZ and Capital Economics both forecast the next rate hike in October, followed by another in early 2026, provided economic conditions support tightening.
For markets, any hawkish signals could trigger volatility. The Nikkei 225 has surged near record highs following the U.S.-Japan trade agreement, while the TOPIX index hit all-time peaks. However, stronger BOJ guidance could prompt profit-taking and pressure export-focused stocks if the yen appreciates.
The Japanese yen (USDJPY) has weakened recently on a stronger dollar but is likely to strengthen if the BOJ signals further tightening, making the currency more attractive to investors. A hawkish shift could push USDJPY lower as traders price in higher Japanese yields.
This policy decision is closely watched by global markets, given Japan’s critical role in Asia’s economic landscape and ongoing trade negotiations with the U.S.
