Dollar Near Two-Month Low Amid Tariff Concerns, Yen Strengthens on Growth Data

The U.S. dollar hovered near two-month lows on Tuesday as investors weighed trade tariff uncertainties and the Federal Reserve's rate cut outlook. The dollar index edged up 0.1% to 106.83 but remained close to Friday’s low of 106.56. Traders are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes on Wednesday for insights into policymakers’ stance on tariffs and inflation.

Recent data showing U.S. consumer prices rose at the fastest pace in 18 months reinforced the Fed’s cautious approach to rate cuts. ANZ strategists predict no rate cuts until the second half of 2025, expecting 75 basis points of easing, while markets anticipate 40 bps cuts this year.

The Japanese yen held firm at 151.61 per dollar after strong Q4 GDP data and persistent inflation boosted expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike in July. The yen has gained nearly 4% against the dollar in 2025.

The euro remained steady at $1.04735, and the British pound traded at $1.2608 ahead of Saudi-hosted Ukraine peace talks. The Australian dollar, down 0.17% to $0.63459, stayed near its two-month high of $0.6374, with the Reserve Bank of Australia expected to cut rates by 25 bps. Economists at Commonwealth Bank of Australia noted the AUD could surge over 1% if the RBA holds rates steady.

The New Zealand dollar dropped 0.3% to $0.57195 as markets anticipated a 50 bps rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday.

Investors remain cautious, focusing on central bank policies, inflation trends, and geopolitical developments.