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The EUR/PLN currency pair is expected to inch higher over the remainder of this year, reaching levels around 4.35 by the year end, Commerzbank reported.
Last Friday, the country’s CPI breakdown for April was released, which suggested that the core inflation reading is likely to surprise to the upside; the market expects a 0.7 percent y/y reading. If the market takes the data at face value and interprets it to mean that a strong labour market in Poland is driving up inflation, then such a reading would be PLN-positive.
Further, Polish data showed some similarities with euro zone data for the same month: tourism services pushed the core inflation rate up sharply in April (euro zone core inflation jumped from 0.7 percent to 1.2 percent y/y).
"In the case of the euro zone, the latest jump was mostly a distortion resulting from the shift in Easter seasonality; the same is likely to have been true of Poland. In that case, inflation will only pick up gradually later in the year because of fundamental factors," the report said.
