Market Roundup
• UK M4 Money Supply (MoM) (Nov)0.8%,-0.1% forecast,-0.2%previous
• UK Mortgage Approvals (Nov)64.53K, 64.00K forecast,65.01K previous
• UK BoE Consumer Credit (Nov)2.077B ,1.713B previous
• UK Mortgage Lending (Nov)4.49B,4.80B forecast,4.16B previous
• UK M3 Money Supply (Nov)3,200.7B, 3,176.2B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 14:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.146% previous
• 14:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.079% previous
• 14:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.117% previous
•15:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec)48.3 forecast, 48.2 previous
•15:00 US ISM Manufacturing Employment (Dec) 44.0 previous
•15:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices (Dec)59.0 forecast,58.5 previous
•15:00 US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Dec)47.4 previous
•16:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 3.570% previous
•16:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 3.500% previous
•17:00 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)3.0% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Monday as currency traders largely looked past the United States' weekend raid in Venezuela , focusing instead on a slate of U.S. macroeconomic indicators due this week that could be crucial in steering Federal Reserve policy. The data rollout this week begins with ISM manufacturing figures on Monday and culminates with the monthly non-farm payrolls report on Friday.Traders currently expect two U.S. rate cuts this year, according to LSEG calculations based on futures.Investors are also awaiting U.S. President Donald Trump's choice for the next Fed chair, with Jerome Powell's term ending in May. Trump has said he will announce his pick this month, and has said Powell's successor will be "someone who believes in lower interest rates, by a lot.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1793(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1828(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1731(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1680(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling dipped on Monday as dollar firmed as investors assessed fresh geopolitical risks after the U.S. seized Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, a move that caused a jump in safe haven assets but had little impact on investors' overall appetite for risk. Investors are assessing the repercussions of a dramatic weekend of events, which saw the U.S. capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. President Donald Trump said on Saturday he was putting Venezuela under temporary American control. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was last up 0.1% at 98.55, extending recent gains into a fifth consecutive day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3499(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3529(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3405 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3338(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar dipped on Monday as renewed geopolitical tensions triggered a knee-jerk pullback in the risk-sensitive Australian dollar.The commodity-heavy currency is widely viewed as a liquid proxy for global risk appetite, as its movements tend to mirror shifts in investor sentiment.Investors see a roughly 39% chance that the RBA could raise rates as soon as February, with focus on Wednesday’s inflation data.The monthly consumer price data for November are out on Wednesday and forecasts favour a slight slowdown to 3.7%, from 3.8% the month before.The trimmed mean measure of core inflation could dip to 3.2%, after an alarmingly high reading of 3.3% in October, and would still be above the RBA's target range of 2% to 3%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6695(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6726(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6654(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6609(38.2%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar initially gained but gave up ground against yen on Monday as investors weighed up the potential repercussions of the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. On Saturday, the U.S. captured Maduro in an attack that was Washington's most controversial intervention in Latin America since the invasion of Panama 37 years ago.Vice President Delcy Rodriguez has taken over as interim leader and said that Maduro remains president.Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday that the central bank will continue to raise rates if economic and price developments move in line with its forecasts. It is a view he has reiterated several times in recent months, including after December's as-expected decision to raise rates to a three-decade high. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.80(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.91 (SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 155.61 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks started the week higher, as U.S. strikes on Venezuela fueled new geopolitical tensions and drove investors toward defence stocks.
At (GMT 13:18),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.27 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.74 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.01 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices jumped to a more than one-week high on Monday, moving closer to record levels as geopolitical tensions rose after the U.S. captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, prompting safe-haven demand.
Spot gold climbed 1.9% to $4,411.90 an ounce by 1309 GMT for its highest since December 29. The metal had hit a record high of $4,549.71 on December 26.
U.S. gold futures for February delivery gained 2.1% to $4,420.70 an ounce.
Oil prices were broadly steady on Monday, with traders largely dismissing any immediate impact on oil supplies from the U.S. capture of Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro, despite the country’s vast oil reserves.
Brent crude futures were up 37 cents, or 0.6%, to $61.12 a barrel at 1244 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude ticked up 41 cents, or 0.7%, to $57.73 a barrel.
