Market Roundup
•UK Business Investment (QoQ) (Q3) 1.2%, 0.6% forecast, 1.4% previous
•UK Construction Output (YoY) (Sep) -0.4%, -0.5% previous, 0.5%
•UK Construction Output (MoM) (Sep) 0.1%, 0.3% forecast, 0.6% previous
•UK GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.5% previous
•UK GDP (YoY) (Q3) 1.0%, 0.1% forecast, 0.7% previous
•UK GDP (MoM) (Sep) -0.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•UK GDP (YoY) (Sep) 1.0%, 1.1% previous
•UK Index of Services (Sep) 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
•UK Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) -0.5%, 0.1% forecast, 0.5% previous
•UK Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep) -1.8%, -1.2% forecast, -1.7% previous
•UK Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Sep) -0.7%, 0.1% forecast, -0.3% previous
•UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Sep) -1.0%, 0.0% forecast, 1.3% previous
•UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Sep) 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•French CPI (MoM) (Oct) 0.3%, 0.2% forecast, -1.3% previous
•French HICP (MoM) (Oct) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, -1.3% previous
•French HICP (YoY) (Oct) 1.6%, 1.5% forecast, 1.4% previous
•French Inflation (YoY) (Oct) 1.10%, 1.00% previous
•French CPI (YoY) (Oct) 1.2%, 1.2% forecast, 1.1% previous
•Italian CPI (YoY) (Oct) 0.9%, 0.9% forecast, 0.7% previous
•Italian CPI (MoM) (Oct) 0.0%, 0.0% forecast, -0.2% previous
•Italian CPI Ex Tobacco (YoY) (Oct) 0.8%, 0.6% previous
•Italian HICP (MoM) (Oct) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 1.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:30 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) 0.3% forecast, 0.5% previous
•13:30 US Export Price Index (YoY) (Oct) -2.1% previous
•13:30 US Export Price Index (MoM) (Oct) -0.1% forecast, -0.7% previous
•13:30 US Import Price Index (YoY) (Oct) -0.1% previous
•13:30 US Import Price Index (MoM) (Oct) -0.1% forecast, -0.4% previous
•13:30 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Nov) -0.30 forecast, -11.90 previous
•13:30 US Retail Control (MoM) (Oct) 0.7% previous
•13:30 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•13:30 US Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct) 1.74% previous
•13:30 US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Oct) 0.7% previous
•13:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Oct) -0.7% forecast, -1.3% previous
•13:30 Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Sep) 1.0% forecast, -0.6% previous
•14:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate (Oct) 77.1% forecast, 77.5% previous
•14:15 US Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct) -0.64% previous
•14:15 US Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) -0.3% forecast, -0.3% previous
•14:15 US Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Oct) -0.5% forecast, -0.4% previous
•15:00 US Business Inventories (MoM) (Sep) 0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
•15:00 US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Sep) 0.3% forecast, 0.5% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•15:00 ECB's Lane Speaks
•14:00 US Fed Collins Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro stay close to a one-year low versus the dollar as investors processed the Fed Powell remarks and the ECB statement.. Minutes of the latest meeting from the European Central Bank showed the cut last month was likely an insurance move. Markets more dovish on the ECB and see a decent 36% chance it could step up its easing in December with a half-point move to guard against growth risks. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday the central bank does not need to rush to lower interest rates, citing ongoing economic growth, a solid job market and sticky inflation as reasons for caution against easing policy too quickly. On the data front, consumer prices in France rose 1.6% year-on-year in October, statistics office INSEE said on Friday, revising slightly up its preliminary reading of 1.5% published late last month.EU-harmonised year-on-year inflation in the bloc's second-biggest economy accelerated slightly in October, compared with the September reading of +1.4%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0611(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0671(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0538`(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0521(Lower BB)
GBP/USD: The pound was headed for its largest weekly decline since January on Friday weighed down by combination of dismal UK economic data and a rising US dollar, which was supported by investor confidence that Donald Trump's policies will increase inflation and growth in the US. Trump, the president-elect, has promised to enact high tariffs on goods coming from some of the biggest trading partners of the United States. He has also called for tax cuts and the repeal of numerous laws that affect everything from energy to cryptocurrency. In September, Britain's economy unexpectedly shrank, and in the third quarter, growth slowed to almost nothing, according to data released on Friday .Sterling was flat on the day at $1.26795, holding near its lowest level since May, and was set to post a 2% decline for the week, marking its largest weekly drop since January.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2753(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2818(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2671 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2635(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar edged higher slightly from its three-month low as investors took in mixed Chinese economic data and remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Powell stated on Thursday that the Federal Reserve does not need to rush to cut interest rates, citing steady economic growth, a strong job market, and persistent inflation as reasons to be cautious about easing policy too quickly. Meanwhile, China's factory output growth slowed in October, with industrial production rising 5.3% year-on-year, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This was a slowdown from September's 5.4% growth and missed the 5.6% forecast in a poll. However, retail sales, a key indicator of consumption, rose 4.8% in October, accelerating from 3.2% in September and marking the fastest growth since February. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6500(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6539(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6456(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6442(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the yen on Friday as investors digested Japanese GDP data. In the July-September quarter, Japan's GDP grew by an annualized 0.9%, which was slower than the preceding three months and mostly caused by poor capital spending. The future for the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) policy normalization remains uncertain due to conflicting economic data and a recent political upheaval. In order to attract market attention for any indications of a possible interest rate hike next month, the BOJ said on Friday that Governor Kazuo Ueda would give a speech and host a news conference on Monday. The yen has depreciated nearly 11% since its peak in September, falling below the 156 per dollar mark for the first time since July in the previous session. Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.16 (23.6 %fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.76(Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.36(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 154.50(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Friday to head for their fourth straight weekly drop.
At (GMT 12:38),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.01 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.02 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.23 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices remained near the previous session's two-month lows and were poised for their worst weekly performance in over three years as a strengthening US dollar and prospects of less aggressive interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve weighed the precious metal.
Spot gold was little changed at $2,568.37 per ounce as of 1215 GMT. Prices have fallen more than 4% so far this week, touching their lowest since Sept. 12 on Thursday. U.S. gold futures were also flat at $2,573.00.
Oil prices remained flat on Friday, set for a weekly loss, as investors considered decreasing Chinese demand and a potential slowing of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate lowering path.
Brent crude futures dropped 30 cents, or 0.41%, to $72.26 a barrel by 1238 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 24 cents, or 0.35%, at $68.46.
