Asia Roundup: Pound eases ahead of UK inflation data and budget announcement, Asian stocks gains, Gold eases Oil edges up -March 26th,2025

Market Roundup

• Australia Weighted mean CPI (YoY) (Feb) 2.40%, 2.50%forecast,  2.50%              previous

•Japan Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Jan) 0.1%, 0.1% forecast,    1.0% previous   

•Japan Leading Index (MoM) (Jan) 0.4%, 0.1% forecast,  0.5% previous                    

•Japan Leading Index (Jan) 108.3,108.0 forecast,  108.3 previous                              

Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)

•07:00 UK Core CPI (YoY) (Feb) 3.6% forecast, 3.7% previous      

•07:00 UK Core CPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.5% forecast,  -0.4% previous               

•07:00 UK Core PPI Output (MoM) (Feb) 0.3% previous

•07:00 UK Core PPI Output (YoY) (Feb) 1.5% previous    

•07:00 UK Core RPI (YoY) (Feb) 3.2% previous   

•07:00 UK Core RPI (MoM) (Feb) -0.1% previous              

•07:00 UK CPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.5% -0.1% previous              

•07:00 UK CPI (YoY) (Feb) 3.0% forecast ,3.0% previous

•07:00 UK CPI, n.s.a (Feb) 135.40 previous          

•07:00 UK CPIH (YoY) 3.5% previous       

•07:00 UK PPI Input (MoM) (Feb) 0.8% previous              

•07:00 UK PPI Input (YoY) (Feb) -0.1% previous

•07:00 UK PPI Output (YoY) (Feb) 0.3% previous              

•07:00 UK PPI Output (MoM) (Feb) 0.5% previous          

•07:45 French Consumer Confidence (Mar) 94 forecast,  93 previous

•08:00 Spanish GDP (YoY) (Q4) 3.5% forecast,  3.5% previous

•08:00 Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.8% forecast,   0.8% previous

•09:00 Swiss ZEW Expectations (Mar) 3.4 previous

•09:30 UK House Price Index (YoY) 4.4% forecast,  4.6% previous

Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)

• No Events Ahead

Currency Forecast          

EUR/USD: The euro weakened against the dollar on Wednesday as markets braced for U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping reciprocal tariff plans, which are feared to fuel inflation and slow economic growth. His tariff policies could exacerbate trade tensions and weigh on global markets.Several Federal Reserve officials are set to speak later in the day, while investors await U.S. personal consumption expenditures data on Friday for monetary policy clues. Meanwhile, the U.S. reached agreements with Ukraine and Russia on Tuesday to pause attacks at sea and on energy targets, with Washington pledging to push for easing some sanctions against Moscow. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0840(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0958(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0741(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0650(61.8%fib).

GBP/USD: The British pound eased against the dollar on Wednesday as investors   braced for the UK CPI inflation data and UK budget update. UK inflation data is set for release on Wednesday, alongside a budget update from Finance Minister Rachel Reeves. The Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to cut Britain's 2025 growth forecast from 2% to around 1%.Reeves and Prime Minister Keir Starmer face growing pressure to deliver on election promises to boost the economy. However, sluggish growth and increasing spending demands, particularly on defense as Europe braces for reduced U.S. protection, present major challenges. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3012(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3072(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2902(March 17th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2873(38.2%fib).

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged up against dollar on Wednesday despite data showing inflation in Australia slowed in February as markets continued to hope for some relief from escalations in U.S. tariff policy. Australia’s inflation slowed in February as lower electricity prices and easing home building costs and rents bolstered the case for further rate cuts. Australian Bureau of Statistics data on Wednesday showed the consumer price index was flat in February, while annual inflation eased to 2.4% from 2.5%, defying forecasts. Meanwhile, the Australian government announced new tax cuts and cost-of-living relief measures on Tuesday ahead of the May elections, pushing the budget back into deficit. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6358(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6383(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6268(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6214(Lower BB).

 USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Wednesday as markets awaited clarity on President Donald Trump's trade policy ahead of a new round of tariffs next week. Traders received some hope on flexibility from the White House after Trump said on Monday that not all levies would come on the April 2 deadline, and some countries would get breaks, without providing further details. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated on Wednesday that interest rates must rise if persistent food price increases trigger broad-based inflation, underscoring the bank’s commitment to scaling back monetary support.However, Ueda noted that Japan’s recent very high inflation was largely driven by temporary factors like rising import costs and food prices, which are expected to fade and do not justify immediate policy tightening. Immediate resistance can be seen at 151.12(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.52(Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 149.81(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 148.68(50%fib).

Equities Recap          

Asian stocks tracked Wall Street higher on Wednesday as markets awaited clarity on President Donald Trump's trade policy ahead of next week’s tariffs.

Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 0.73%  , South Korea's KOSPI was up 1.08%,Hang Seng was down  by 0.28 %,

Commodities Recap

Gold prices dipped on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar strengthened, while markets prepared for President Donald Trump's sweeping reciprocal tariff plans, which are feared to drive inflation and slow economic growth.

Spot gold eased 0.1% to $3,017.49 an ounce as of 0535 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.2% to $3,021.30.

Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday as the U.S. intensified efforts to curb Venezuelan and Iranian oil exports, while a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude inventories added support.

Brent crude futures gained 20 cents, or 0.3%, to $73.22 a barrel by 0404 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 20 cents, or 0.3%, to $69.20 a barrel.