Market Roundup
• UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep): 0.6%, 1.0% previous
• UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep): 2.3%, 0.7% forecast, 1.3% previous
• UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep): 1.5%, 0.6% forecast, 0.7% previous
• UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep): 0.5%, -0.2% forecast, 0.6% previous
• French Consumer Confidence (Oct): 90, 87 forecast, 88 previous
• Spanish PPI (YoY) (Sep): 0.3%, -1.6% previous
• Spanish Unemployment Rate (Q3): 10.45%, 10.20% forecast, 10.29% previous
• HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Oct): 48.3, 48.2 forecast, 48.2 previous
• HCOB France Composite PMI (Oct): 46.8, 48.1 previous
• HCOB France Services PMI (Oct): 47.1, 48.7 forecast, 48.5 previous
• HCOB Germany Composite PMI (Oct): 53.8, 51.6 forecast, 52.0 previous
• HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Oct): 49.6, 49.5 forecast, 49.5 previous
• HCOB Germany Services PMI (Oct): 54.5, 51.1 forecast, 51.5 previous
• HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Oct): 50.0, 49.8 forecast, 49.8 previous
• HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Oct): 52.2, 51.0 forecast, 51.2 previous
• HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Oct): 52.6, 51.2 forecast, 51.3 previous
• UK S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct): 51.1, 50.6 forecast, 50.1 previous
• UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct): 49.6, 46.6 forecast, 46.2 previous
• UK S&P Global Services PMI (Oct): 51.1, 51.0 forecast, 50.8 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•12:30 US Core CPI (YoY) (Sep): 3.1% forecast, 3.1% previous
•12:30 US Core CPI (MoM) (Sep): 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
•12:30 US Core CPI Index (Sep): 329.79
•12:30 US CPI (YoY) (Sep): 3.1% forecast, 2.9% previous
•12:30 US CPI (MoM) (Sep): 0.4% forecast, 0.4% previous
•12:30 US CPI Index, n.s.a (Sep): 325.01 forecast, 323.98 previous
•12:30 US CPI Index, s.a (Sep): 323.36 previous
•12:30 US CPI, n.s.a (MoM) (Sep): 0.29% previous
•12:30 US Real Earnings (MoM) (Sep): -0.1% previous
•13:45 USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct): 51.9 forecast, 52.0 previous
•13:45 USD S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct): 53.9 previous
•13:45 USD S&P Global Services PMI (Oct): 53.5 forecast, 54.2 previous
•14:00 USD Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Oct): 4.6% forecast, 4.7% previous
•14:00 USD Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Oct): 3.7% forecast, 3.7% previous
•14:00 USD Michigan Consumer Expectations (Oct): 51.2 forecast, 51.7 previous
•14:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct): 55.0 forecast, 55.1 previous
•14:00 USD Michigan Current Conditions (Oct): 61.0 forecast, 60.4 previous
•14:00 USD New Home Sales (Sep): 710K forecast, 800K previous
•14:00 USD New Home Sales (MoM) (Sep): 20.5% previous
•15:00 USD Cleveland CPI (MoM) (Sep): 0.3% previous
•17:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: 418 previous
•17:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count: 548 previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• 12:45 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro fell against the dollar on Friday as the greenback strengthened ahead of U.S. inflation data, which is unlikely to change expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week. Investors are eyeing the September Consumer Price Index, due later on Friday despite the ongoing government shutdown. Economists forecast a 0.4% monthly rise for headline CPI and 0.3% for the core measure.While the data is not expected to alter the Fed’s planned 25-basis-point rate cut, it could offer clues on the central bank’s December policy. Traders are largely pricing in the November cut and another in December. Meanwhile, eurozone business activity expanded faster than expected in October, driven by strong growth in the services sector, according to a survey released Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1662(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1728(Oct 17th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1561(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1523(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped against the dollar on Friday as stronger greenback offset upbeat UK retail sales data. UK retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.5% in September, driven by strong tech sales, including Apple’s new iPhones, and higher gold demand from online jewellers, data showed Friday.The ONS reported that retail sales rose 0.9% in Q3, up from 0.2% in Q2, likely adding 0.04 percentage points to GDP growth a positive sign for an economy expected to slow in the second half. Separate data, business activity showed early signs of recovery, with the preliminary UK Composite PMI from S&P Global indicating modest improvement on Friday.Futures markets now price in about a 65% chance of a quarter-point BoE rate cut by year-end, down slightly from around 75% before Friday’s data. Sterling was down 0.1% at $1.3311 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3386(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3399(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3294(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3265(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped lower on Friday as investors assessed the latest Australian Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7 in October 2025 from 51.4 in September, marking a return to contraction after nine consecutive months of expansion. In contrast, the Services PMI rose to 53.1 from 52.4, while the Composite PMI edged higher to 52.6 from 52.4.Market attention now turns to Australia’s third-quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI), set for release next Wednesday. The data is expected to be a key factor in deciding whether the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut its 3.60% cash rate at its November 3–4 policy meeting. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6524(Oct 22nd high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6544(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6476(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6442(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Friday as the Japanese currency weakened, despite hotter-than-expected inflation data. Japan’s core consumer prices rose 2.9% year-on-year in September, surpassing the central bank’s 2% target and boosting expectations of a near-term rate hike.Meanwhile, Japan’s manufacturing sector contracted in October at its fastest pace in 19 months, driven by a sharper decline in new orders, according to a private-sector survey released Friday.The Bank of Japan will review these data during its two-day policy meeting next week as it considers whether to maintain the current 0.5% interest rate and update its growth and inflation forecasts. The BOJ ended a decade of extensive stimulus last year and raised short-term rates to 0.5% in January, citing progress toward its 2% inflation goal, keeping rates unchanged since. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.27(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.58 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European stocks fell on Friday but remained poised for a weekly gain, while the dollar held steady as investors awaited U.S. inflation data.
At (GMT 12:22),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.04 percent, Germany's dax was down by 0.20 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.63 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell nearly 2% on Friday, threatening to end a nine-week winning streak, as investors booked profits and easing U.S.-China trade tensions reduced safe-haven demand ahead of a key U.S. inflation report.
Spot gold was down 1.9% at $4,047.30 per ounce at 1105 GMT, marking a 4.8% decline so far this week, its largest weekly percentage drop since November 2024. U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 2% to $4,061.30 per ounce.
