Market Roundup
•Swiss CPI (MoM) (Oct): -0.3%, -0.1% forecast, -0.2% previous.
•Swiss CPI (YoY) (Oct) 0.1%, 0.3% forecast,0.2% previous.
•HCOB Spain Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 52.1, 51.8 forecast,51.5 previous.
•HCOB Italy Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 49.9, 49.3 forecast,49.0 previous
•HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 48.8,48.3 forecast,48.8 previous
•HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 49.6, 49.6 forecast,49.6 previous
•S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 53.5,52.0 previous
• HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 50.0,50.0 forecast,50.0 previous
• UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 49.7 49.6 forecast,49.7 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• French 12-Month BTF Auction: 2.053% previous
• French 3-Month BTF Auction: 2.011% previous
• French 6-Month BTF Auction: 2.015% previous
•Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct): 48.2, 47.7 previous
•US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct): 52.2, 52.0 previous
•US ISM Manufacturing Employment (Oct): 45.3 previous
•US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Oct): 48.9 previous
•US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct): 49.4 forecast, 49.1 previous
•US ISM Manufacturing Prices (Oct): 62.4 forecast, 61.9 previous
•US Total Vehicle Sales (Oct): 15.60M forecast, 16.40M previous
•US 3-Month Bill Auction: 3.730% previous
•US 6-Month Bill Auction: 3.640% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD The euro slipped against the dollar on Monday after data showed that Eurozone manufacturing stagnated in October. A survey showed that while production continued to rise for the eighth consecutive month, new orders remained flat and employment declined. The final HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, came in at 50.0 in October matching the preliminary estimate and slightly above September’s 49.8 marking the threshold between expansion and contraction.Investors are now focused on upcoming U.S. data, including the ADP employment report and ISM PMIs, for clues that could influence the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy stance. On the monetary policy front, attention this week will also turn to interest rate decisions from the central banks of Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1662(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1728(Oct 17th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1551(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1523(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher against the dollar on Monday as investors digested the latest UK manufacturing PMI data. A survey showed that British factories recorded their strongest performance in a year in October, though the improvement was largely driven by a temporary boost from the restart of production at Jaguar Land Rover following a cyberattack. The S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7 in October from 46.2 in September, slightly above the preliminary estimate of 49.6.Attention this week now turns to the Bank of England’s policy meeting, which stands out among major central bank gatherings in October and November due to the unusual degree of uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3200(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3288(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3119(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3054(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Monday, though gains were limited as investors positioned ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy decision on Tuesday. The central bank is widely expected to keep the cash rate unchanged at 3.6%, following a stronger-than-expected core inflation reading that has dampened hopes for near-term policy easing.Data showed that Australia’s building approvals surged 12.0% month-on-month in September, more than double the consensus forecast of a 5.0% rise, indicating resilience in the construction sector despite elevated borrowing costs. The AUD/USD pair remains within its post-October 17 uptrend, but may require a fresh catalyst such as a hawkish signal from the RBA—to sustain further gains. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6603(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6655(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6538(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6466(61.8%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar traded near multi-month highs on Monday as yen remained on the defensive as investors grappled with mixed signals from the Bank of Japan. Uncertainty persists over the timing of the BoJ’s next rate hike, with political and fiscal dynamics further clouding the policy outlook.Speculation is growing that newly appointed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may prioritize aggressive fiscal stimulus to boost growth and cushion households from rising living costs, a move that could limit the BoJ’s room for monetary tightening. Last week, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda offered his strongest hint yet that a rate hike could come as early as December, though markets remained largely unmoved by the central bank’s cautious stance especially when contrasted with the Federal Reserve’s increasingly hawkish tone.Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.58(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.90 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 152.98 (SMA20).
Equities Recap
European stocks edged higher on Monday as investors assessed a fresh round of corporate earnings, while auto shares rose on optimism that Dutch chipmaker Nexperia’s China plants would resume shipments.
At (GMT 12:59),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.07 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.04 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.09 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were steady on Monday as the dollar hovered near a three-month high, with traders awaiting U.S. private payroll data for further signals on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $4,008.34 an ounce by 1234 GMT. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.7% to $4,022.40.
Oil prices were little changed despite news that OPEC+ plans to end its supply increases, with the market weighed down by fears of an oil supply glut and weak factory data in Asia.
Brent crude futures were down 1 cent, or 0.02%, at $64.76 a barrel by 0959 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 3 cents, or 0.05%, at $60.95.
