Market Roundup
•France CPI NSA (YoY) (Sep): 1.20%, 1.20% previous.
•France CPI (MoM) (Sep): -1.0%, -1.0% forecast, 0.4% previous.
•France CPI (YoY) (Sep): 1.2%, 1.2% forecast, 0.9% previous.
•France HICP (YoY) (Sep): 1.1%, 1.1% forecast, 0.8% previous.
•France HICP (MoM) (Sep): -1.1%, -1.1% forecast, -1.1% previous.
•France Inflation (YoY) (Sep): 1.10%, 0.80% previous.
•EU Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug) 1.1% , 2.0% previous.
•EU Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) -1.2%,-1.6% forecast, 0.5% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 12:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Aug) -1.5% forecast, 2.5% previous.
• 12:30 Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Aug) -1.3% forecast, 1.2% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•15:00 UK BoE Breeden Speaks
•16:10 US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
•17:00 US Fed Waller Speaks
•18:00 ECB's De Guindos Speaks
•18:30 US Fed Schmid Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Wednesday as the dollar weakened following dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Powell on Tuesday left the door open to further rate cuts and indicated that the end of the central bank’s long-running balance sheet reduction effort may be approaching.His remarks, interpreted by markets as dovish, reinforced expectations for additional easing this year, with around 48 basis points of rate cuts priced in by December. Futures markets now anticipate a quarter-point cut this month and another in December, followed by three more reductions next year.The euro last traded slightly higher at $1.1611, showing resilience despite ongoing political turmoil in France. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.16630(Oct 13th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1696(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1525(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1506(Lower BB)
GBP/USD: The pound strengthened on Wednesday as U.S. dollar weakened after comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell bolstered wagers on an interest rate cut this month. Powell left the door open to cutting rates at the Fed's policy meeting on October 28-29 by saying the labor market remains mired in its low-hiring, low-firing doldrums, and that the absence of official economic data due to the government shutdown has not prevented policymakers from being able to assess the economic outlook, at least for now. Meanwhile, Britain’s Finance Minister Rachel Reeves said she is considering both tax increases and spending cuts in her November 26 budget, confirming widespread expectations in line with her pledges to balance the country’s books. Money markets are placing an 87% chance of no change at the BoE's next meeting on November 6.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3368(Oct 14th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3442(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3260(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3226(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar regained ground on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar came under pressure following remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which reinforced market expectations of a rate cut this month. Powell noted that the U.S. labor market remains subdued, though the economy “may be on a somewhat firmer trajectory than expected,” and said the Fed will make interest rate decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis, weighing weak labor conditions against inflation remaining above target.Meanwhile, RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter commented that recent data has been slightly stronger than expected, but the central bank continues to guide policy with a one- to two-year horizon. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6539(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6685(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6471(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.64507(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish comments fueled speculation of further rate cuts. Powell indicated that additional reductions remain possible and suggested that the Fed’s long-running balance sheet reduction program may soon conclude.Meanwhile, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the timing of potential 100% tariffs on Chinese exports, set for November 1, depends on Beijing, though he acknowledged it may be difficult for China to find a resolution. The U.S. dollar dropped 0.2% against a basket of peers, with the yen and the Australian dollar the standout performers, recovering from steep drops against the dollar last week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.42(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 150.96 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 149.42 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
Europe's tech and luxury stocks slumped on Wednesday after disappointing results from industry heavyweights ASML and LVMH, while caution loomed ahead of the European Central Bank's policy decision.
At (GMT 12:20 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.36 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.04 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 2.28 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices surpassed $4,200 for the first time on Wednesday, hitting a fresh record high amid renewed U.S.-China trade tensions and growing market expectations of further U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Spot gold was up 1.4% at $4,199.99 per ounce by 0659 GMT, after hitting an all-time high of $4,200.11. U.S. gold futures for December delivery gained 1.3% to $4,218 per ounce.
Oil prices steadied on Wednesday after hitting five-month lows in the previous session, as investors weighed the International Energy Agency’s forecast of a supply surplus in 2026 alongside ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions that could curb demand.
Brent crude futures were up 3 cents, or 0.1%, at $62.42 a barrel by 1145 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures gained 11 cents, or 0.2%, to $58.81 a barrel.
