Market Roundup
•UK Feb Industrial Production (MoM) 1.0%, 0.5% forecast,-1.5% previous
•UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change -1.6%,-1.7% previous
•UK GDP (YoY) -7.8%,-7.3% forecast, -9.2% previous
•UK GDP (MoM) 0.4%,0.6% forecast, -2.9% previous
•UK Index of Services -1.9%, -2.4% previous
•German Mar WPI (MoM) 1.7%, 1.4% previous
•German Mar WPI (YoY) 4.4%, 2.3% previous
•UK Feb Trade Balance Non-EU -10.73B, -4.05B forecast, -1.76B previous
•UK Feb Trade Balance -16.44B, -10.40B forecast, -9.83B previous
•UK Feb Manufacturing Production (MoM) 1.3%,0.5% forecast, -2.3% previous
•UK Feb Construction Output (MoM) 1.6%,0.6% forecast ,0.9% previous
•UK Feb Industrial Production (YoY) -3.5%,-4.5% forecast , -4.9% previous
•UK Feb Manufacturing Production (YoY) -4.2%,-5.1% forecast , -5.2% previous
•EU April ZEW Economic Sentiment 66.3, 74.0 previous
•German April ZEW Current Conditions -48.8, -53.0 forecast , -61.0 previous
•German April ZEW Economic Sentiment 70.7, 79.0 forecast ,76.6 previous
Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)
•12:30 US March NFIB Small Business Optimism 0.1% forecast , -1.0% previous
•12:30 US March CPI Index, s.a 263.16 previous
•12:30 US March CPI, n.s.a (MoM) 0.55% previous
•12:30 US March Core CPI Index 270.30 previous
•12:30 US March Core CPI (MoM) 0.2% forecast , 0.1% previous
•12:30 US March CPI (YoY ) 2.5% forecast , 1.7% previous
•12:30 US March CPI Index, n.s.a. 264.69 forecast , 263.01 previous
•12:30 US March Core CPI (YoY) 1.5% forecast , 1.3% previous
•12:55 US March CPI (MoM) 0.5% forecast , 0.4% previous
•12:55 US Redbook (MoM) -17.2% previous
•15:00 US Mar Cleveland CPI (MoM) 0.2% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•16:00 US FOMC Member George Speaks
•16:00 US FOMC Member Daly Speaks
•16:00 US FOMC Member Harker Speaks
•19:15 US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
Fx Beat
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Tuesday after survey showed German investor morale fell in April. Investor sentiment in Germany fell unexpectedly, citing rising fears that private consumption could be depressed as Europe’s largest economy gets closer to extending lockdown measures. The ZEW said its survey of investor economic sentiment fell to 70.7 points, its first drop since November 2020, from 76.6 the previous month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1928(April 8th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1972(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1855 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1818(14DMA).
GBP/USD: Sterling rose against dollar on Tuesday as easing lockdown measures UK supported sterling. It recouped some of those losses on Monday as England’s shops, pubs, gyms and hairdressers re-opened after three months of lockdown and continued to hold up against a broadly stronger dollar on Tuesday. Sterling has been among the best-performing G10 currencies this year, enjoying its best quarter since 2015 against the euro. The pace of Britain’s vaccination drive has led analysts to bet on quicker economic rebound from the country’s worst contraction in 300 years. By 12:10 GMT, the pound was 0.1% higher at $1.3759 and 0.25% higher to the euro at 86.50 pence.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3772 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3797 (21DMA ).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3690 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3600 (61.8%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar edged higher on Tuesday as helped by a pick-up in U.S. Treasury yields, but was gains were limited as markets waited for inflation data in the United States. U.S. CPI data for March is due at 1230 GMT and is expected to show a rise in inflation to 2.4%.Market participants will also be paying attention to how yields react to a 30-year Treasury auction. At 11:30 GMT, the dollar was up 0.1% against a basket of currencies, at 92.201, moving away from recent three-week lows. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9285 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9323(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9204(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9177(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against the Japanese yen on Tuesday as investor’s awaited key U.S. inflation data that could set the stage for more dollar strength. Investors were anticipating U.S. inflation data, due at 1230 GMT, to provide cues on a recovery in the world’s largest economy. A stronger-than-expected reading could ramp up expectations of early monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve, and boost the dollar and treasury yields. At (GMT 11:30), the yen was last up 0.03 % at 109.40. Strong resistance can be seen at 110.89(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 111.00 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 109.95(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 109.59 (14DMA).
Equities Recap
European shares hovered just below all-time highs on Tuesday as investors awaited data that is expected to show a pickup in U.S. inflation on the back of a swift global economic recovery.
At (GMT 12:20 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.16 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.24 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.23 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell to their lowest in more than a week on Tuesday after the metal's appeal was dented by higher Treasury yields and as investors awaited U.S. inflation data.
Spot gold was 0.2% lower at $1,729 per ounce by 1200 GMT, having earlier dipped to its lowest since April 5 at $1,722.67. U.S. gold futures eased 0.2% at $1,729.70.
Oil prices ticked up on Tuesday after strong Chinese import data but markets broadly shrugged off Middle East tensions which have so far not disrupted oil supply.
Brent crude oil futures were up 25 cents, or 0.4%, at $63.53 a barrel by 0855 GMT while U.S. crude oil futures gained 14 cents, or 0.2%, to $59.84 a barrel. Both contracts are on course for their fifth session of sub-1% change.
