Market Roundup
• UK Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Oct): 2.4%, 2.3% forecast, 2.2% previous
• German Import Price Index (MoM) (Sep): 0.2%, -0.2% forecast, -0.5% previous
• German Import Price Index (YoY) (Sep): -1.0%, -1.5% previous
• German Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep): 0.2%, -1.6% previous
• German Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep): 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, -0.5% previous
• French CPI (YoY) (Oct): 1.0%, 1.1% forecast, 1.2% previous
• French CPI (MoM) (Oct): 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, -1.0% previous
• French HICP (YoY) (Oct): 0.9%, 1.0% forecast, 1.1% previous
• French HICP (MoM) (Oct): 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, -1.1% previous
• French PPI (YoY) (Sep): 0.1%, 0.1% previous
• French PPI (MoM) (Sep): -0.2%, -0.2% previous
• EU Core CPI (MoM) (Oct): 0.3%, 0.1% previous
• EU Core CPI (YoY) (Oct): 2.4%, 2.3% forecast, 2.4% previous
• EU CPI (YoY) (Oct): 2.1%, 2.1% forecast, 2.2% previous
• EU CPI (MoM) (Oct): 0.2%, 0.1% previous
• EU CPI, n.s.a (Oct): 129.70, 129.43 previous
• EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Oct): 2.4%, 2.4% previous
• EU HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Oct): 0.2%, 0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:45 US Chicago PMI (Oct 42.3 forecast, 40.6 previous
•15:00 Canada Budget Balance (Aug) -1.51B previous
•15:00 Canada Budget Balance (YoY) (Aug) -7.79B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower against dollar on Friday as investors digested the latest Eurozone inflation data. Euro zone inflation slowed a touch in October and continued to hover near the European Central Bank's 2% target, confirming the bank's message that the economy remains on the relatively benign path it projected earlier.Inflation in the 20 nations sharing the euro currency slowed to 2.1% from 2.2% in September, in line with economists' forecasts in a Reuters poll, as quicker services price growth was offset by lower energy costs, figures from Eurostat showed on Friday.The ECB held interest rates steady on Thursday, arguing that inflation was on target and some of the worst risks related to economic growth had declined, keeping the bloc on a path for acceptable, if unspectacular, growth. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1662(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1728(Oct 17th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1551(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1523(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound extended its losing streak against the U.S. dollar for a fourth consecutive session on Friday, pressured by dovish expectations surrounding the Bank of England. Sterling has come under sustained selling in recent days as investors increasingly bet on rate cuts next year, even though the BoE is widely expected to hold rates steady at its meeting next week. Softer economic readings and signs of cooling inflation have strengthened the argument for monetary easing. Attention now turns to the late-November budget, where Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to unveil tax hikes and spending reductions that could accelerate the BoE’s path toward rate cuts. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3200(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3288(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.31119(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3054(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped on Friday as uncertainty surrounding a potential U.S. rate cut in December lent support to the greenback. Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points for the second time this year, to a range of 3.75%–4.00%. However, Chair Jerome Powell signaled that policymakers remain divided over the outlook for monetary policy, urging markets not to assume another rate reduction in December. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, traders now see a 67% chance of a 25-bp cut, down from 91.1% a week earlier. Meanwhile, Australia’s Q3 PPI rose 1.0% q/q and 3.5% y/y, up from +0.7% and +3.4% previously. The RBA is expected to retain a cautious tone amid cooling consumption and a steady labor market.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6603(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6655(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6538(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6466(61.8%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower on Friday as yen firmed after Japan's new finance minister said the government has been monitoring foreign exchange movements with a high sense of urgency, but was still heading for its weakest monthly performance against the dollar since July.The Japanese currency has had a tumultuous week that included a brief but powerful rally, after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent took a few swipes at the Bank of Japan for not raising rates quickly enough, only for BOJ policymakers to then keep policy unchanged, as had been widely expected.The yen has lost 4% against the dollar in October, its worst monthly performance since July, and has hit a record low against the euro .Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.27(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.58 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European stocks slipped on Friday as investors digested a mix of corporate earnings and a soft euro zone inflation report, which supported the ECB’s stance that inflationary pressures remain subdued, wrapping up a volatile month
At (GMT 12:34),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.25 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.31 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.17 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold slipped toward the $4,000 mark on Friday as doubts over a potential U.S. rate cut in December kept the dollar hovering near three-month highs, though the metal remained on course for a third consecutive monthly rise.
Spot gold was down 0.4% at $4,009.24 per ounce at 1147 GMT, having gained nearly 4% so far this month. U.S. gold futures for December delivery were up 0.1% at $4,020.80 per ounce.
Oil prices fell on Friday, poised for a third straight monthly drop as a stronger U.S. dollar, soft Chinese data, and increased global supply weighed on the market.
Brent crude futures were down 38 cents, or 0.6%, at $64.62 a barrel by 1008 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $60.19 a barrel, down 38 cents, or 0.6%.
