Market Roundup
•French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q3): -0.3%, -0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
•Swiss Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Oct): 2.9%, 2.8% previous
•Swiss Unemployment Rate s.a. (Oct): 3.0%, 3.0% forecast, 3.0% previous
•Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep): 1.7%, 3.3% previous
•HCOB Italy Construction PMI (MoM) (Oct): 50.7, 49.8 previous
•HCOB Germany Construction PMI (Oct): 42.8, 46.9 forecast, 46.2 previous
•HCOB France Construction PMI (MoM) (Oct): 39.8, 42.9 previous
•HCOB Eurozone Construction PMI (MoM) (Oct): 44.0, 46.0 previous
•EU Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep): -0.1%, 0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous
•EU Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep): 1.0%, 1.0% forecast, 1.6% previous
•UK BoE MPC vote cut (Nov): 4, 3 forecast, 2 previous
•UK BoE MPC vote hike (Nov): 0, 0 forecast, 0 previous
•UK BoE MPC vote unchanged (Nov): 5, 6 forecast, 7 previous
•UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Nov): 4.00%, 4.00% forecast, 4.00% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•15:00 Canada Ivey PMI n.s.a (Oct) 61.6 previous
•15:00 Canada Ivey PMI (Oct)55.2 forecast, 59.8 previous
• 15:30 US Natural Gas Storage 34B forecast, 74B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 15:30 Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks
• 16:00 US Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
• 16:00 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
• 16:15 German Buba Vice President Buch Speaks
•19:00 Canada BoC Deputy Gov Kozicki Speaks
•20:30 US Fed Waller Speaks
•18:30 ECB's Lane Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged up versus the dollar, supported by positive risk sentiment and the weakening dollar due to the ongoing US government shutdown. On the data front, Euro area retail sales fell 0.1% in September from a month ago, despite market expectations, according to official data released by Eurostat on Thursday.The decline in the eurozone followed a downwardly revised 0.1% drop in August. German industrial production rose less than expected in September, increasing 1.3% over the previous month amid gains in the car and electronics industries but tempered by a decline in mechanical engineering, the statistics office, opens new tab said on Thursday.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1539(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1590(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1475(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1462(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling firmed on Thursday after the Bank of England kept rates unchanged but left signs it could cut rates next month after the government's budget. The Bank of England held interest rates steady on Thursday, but a close vote and indications that Governor Andrew Bailey may soon favor a cut leave the door open for easing after the government’s budget later this month.The MPC voted 5-4 to keep rates at 4%, with Breeden, Ramsden, Dhingra, and Taylor favoring a cut to 3.75%. Economists had expected a 6-3 split to hold the Bank Rate steady.Thursday’s decision marked the first pause in the BoE’s gradual rate-cut cycle, which has been occurring roughly every three months since August 2024.Bailey said he needs a sustained slowdown in inflation before considering rate cuts. UK inflation held at 3.8% in September, below the BoE’s 4% forecast, with market pricing reflecting his stance.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3129(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3163(Nov 3rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2977(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar held steady against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as stronger Australian trade figures supported Australian dollar. Australia’s goods trade surplus widened in September, driven by a surge in gold exports amid rising prices, while imports saw a modest increase.The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the goods trade surplus rose to A$3.94 billion ($2.56 billion) in September from a revised A$1.11 billion in August, broadly matching market expectations for a A$4 billion surplus.Exports climbed 7.9%, led by a 62.2% surge in non-monetary gold. The bullion's price rose a staggering 12% in the month.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6603(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6655(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6538(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6466(61.8%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar eased slightly on Thursday as weaker greenback and BOJ rate hike uncertainty supported yen.Japan's real wages fell for the ninth consecutive month in September as resurgent inflation outgrew nominal pay, government data showed on Thursday, highlighting the wage-price gap that complicates the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) rate hike plans. Inflation-adjusted real wages, a key determinant of household purchasing power, decreased 1.4% in September from a year before, the labour ministry data showed.New Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said on Tuesday that the country has not yet seen sustainable inflation alongside wage growth, indicating her preference for a cautious approach to interest rate hikes by the central bank.Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.58(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.90 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 152.98 (SMA20).
Equities Recap
European stocks fell on Thursday amid a turbulent week for global markets, with weak results from France’s Legrand adding to concerns over high valuations in tech-related firms.
At (GMT 12:20 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.25 percent, Germany's Dax down 0.25%, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.67 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold climbed above the crucial $4,000 per ounce mark on Thursday, aided by a weaker dollar and growing concerns over the economic impact of the prolonged U.S. government shutdown.
Spot gold was up 0.8% at $4,015.31 per ounce by 1207 GMT. U.S. gold futures for December delivery gained 0.8% to $4,024.60 per ounce.
Oil prices recovered slightly on Thursday, supported by easing fears of a supply glut as sanctions on Russian firms start to take effect.
Brent crude recovered 47 cents (0.7%) to $63.99 by 1300 GMT, and U.S. WTI climbed 51 cents (0.9%) to $60.11, rebounding from two-week lows.
