Market Roundup
•UK Average Earnings ex Bonus (Jan) 5.9%, 5.9%forecast,5.9% previous
•UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jan) 5.8%, 5.8% forecast, 6.1% previous
•UK Claimant Count Change (Feb) 44.2K, 7.9K forecast, 2.8K previous
•UK Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Jan) 144K, 95K forecast, 107K previous
•UK Unemployment Rate (Jan) 4.4%, 4.4% forecast, 4.4% previous
•Swiss Trade Balance (Feb) 4.803B, 5.010B forecast, 6.148B previous
•German PPI (YoY) (Feb) 0.7%, 1.0% forecast, 0.5% previous
•German PPI (MoM) (Feb) -0.2%, 0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous
•UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Mar) 4.50%,4.50% forecast, 4.50% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,890K forecast, 1,870K previous
•12:30 US Current Account (Q4) -330.0B forecast, -310.9B previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 224K forecast, 220K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 226.00K previous
•12:30 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar) 8.8 forecast, 18.1 previous
•12:30 US Philly Fed Business Conditions (Mar) 27.8 previous
•12:30 US Philly Fed CAPEX Index (Mar) 14.00 previous
•12:30 US Philly Fed Employment (Mar) 5.3 previous
•12:30 US Philly Fed New Orders (Mar) 21.9 previous
•12:30 US Philly Fed Prices Paid (Mar) 40.50 previous
•12:30 Canada IPPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.3% forecast, 1.6% previous
•12:30 Canada IPPI (YoY) (Feb) 5.8% previous
•12:30 Canada RMPI (YoY) (Feb) 11.8% previous
•12:30 Canada RMPI (MoM) (Feb) -0.3% forecast, 3.7% previous
•14:00 US Existing Home Sales (Feb) 3.95M forecast, 4.08M previous
•14:00 US Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Feb) -4.9% previous
•14:00 US Leading Index (MoM) (Feb) -0.2% forecast, -0.3% previous
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 3B forecast, -62B previous
•15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 4.225% previous
•15:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 4.220% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 16:50 Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower on Thursday as dollar firmed after the Federal Reserve indicated it was in no rush to cut rates further this year due to uncertainties around U.S. tariffs . U.S. policymakers projected two quarter-point interest rate cuts were likely later this year, the same median forecast as three months ago, even as they expect slower economic growth and higher inflation. On Wednesday, the Fed held its benchmark overnight rate steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range. Powell’s comments and the Fed statement underscored the challenge faced by policymakers as they navigate President Donald Trump's plans to levy duties on imports from U.S. trading partners and the impact on the economy.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0946 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0804(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0693(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound eased on Thursday after Bank of England keept s rates on hold and warned against assumptions for cuts in face of uncertainty.The Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to keep rates on hold with only external member Swati Dhingra voting for a quarter-point cut. The Monetary Policy Committee said it still expected inflation pressures would continue to ease but "there was no presumption that monetary policy was on a pre-set path over the next few meetings. The MPC repeated its guidance made in February that it was taking a gradual and careful approach to further rate cuts.It said global trade policy uncertainty had intensified after the United States made a range of import tariff announcement which prompted retaliation from some other countries. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3012(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3072(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2902(March 17th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2873(38.2%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar on Thursday after a weaker-than-expected jobs report increased the likelihood of a rate cut in May.Australian employment unexpectedly declined by 52,800 in February, ending a streak of strong labor market gains. This suggests the red-hot job market may be starting to cool, although the unemployment rate remained steady.Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that January’s employment gain was revised down to 30,500, while markets had expected a 30,000 increase in February, highlighting a larger-than-anticipated slowdown in hiring.The soft headline result sent the Australian dollar 0.4% lower to $0.6334. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6397(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6413(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6335(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6288(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar weakened against yen on Thursday as rising bets on a Bank of Japan rate hike and escalating geopolitical tensions boosted demand for the safe-haven yen. The Bank of Japan kept rates steady and warned of heightening global economic uncertainty, suggesting the timing of further rate hikes will depend largely on the fallout from U.S. tariffs. The decision came as fears of a global slowdown caused by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policy overshadow wage and price data showing Japan is making progress in durably achieving the BOJ's 2% inflation target. The yen has risen nearly 6% this year as traders bet that the Japanese central bank will hike rates this year as well as benefiting from geopolitical tensions leading to safe asset flows. Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.82(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.50(61.8%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.11(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.34(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares reversed early gains on Thursday, hurt by losses in banks, while investors turned to a series of interest rate decisions by major central banks across the continent.
At GMT (12:19) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.30 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.55 percent, France’s CAC was down by 1.09 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices held steady on Thursday after hitting a fresh record high earlier in the session, supported by the Federal Reserve's signal of potential rate cuts this year and ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty boosting safe-haven demand.
Spot gold held steady at $3,044.44 an ounce as of 0928 GMT, after hitting a record high of $3,057.21 earlier in the session.
Oil prices were steady on Thursday as a larger-than-expected U.S. fuel inventory drawdown and renewed Middle East tensions offset the impact of a stronger dollar.
Brent crude futures slipped 11 cents, or 0.16%, to $70.67 a barrel by 1038 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) contract for April was flat
