America’s Roundup: Dollar slips amid economic uncertainty, US stocks rally, Gold hovers near all-time high, Oil prices tick up

Market Roundup

• US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Mar) -20.00, -1.90 forecast,5.70 previous

• US Retail Control (MoM) (Feb) 1.0% ,0.2% forecast,-1.0% previous

• US Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) 0.2%, 0.6% forecast, -1.2% previous

• US Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb) 3.10% ,4.20% previous

• US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Feb) 0.5% ,0.4% forecast,  -0.8% previous

• Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (Jan) 7.91B, 17.44B forecast,  13.94B previous

• Canada Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (Jan) -3.150B ,3.770B previous

•US  Business Inventories (MoM) (Jan) 0.3% 0.3% forecast,   -0.2% previous previous

•US  NAHB Housing Market Index (Mar) 39 ,42 forecast,    42 previous

•US  Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Jan) 0.5%, 0.4% forecast, -0.1% previous

• French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.279%, 2.287% previous

• French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.348%, 2.395%

• French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.306%, 2.363% previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)

• 04:30    Japan Tertiary Industry Activity Index (Jan) 7.10 previous           

Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)

• No Events Ahead

Currency Forecast          

EUR/USD: The euro stayed near a five-month highon Monday as investors focused  on Germany's debt reform plans and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz announced that he had secured key support from the Greens for a significant increase in state borrowing. The deal, which is expected to be approved by the outgoing parliament this week, includes a 500 billion euro ($544 billion) fund for infrastructure and major revisions to borrowing rules. Focus also remained on talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump on Tuesday, as an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict is seen bringing lower energy costs across Europe. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0947 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0804(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0693(50%fib).

GBP/USD: The British pound gained on Monday as traders' attention turned towards   this week's Bank of England meeting and next week's update on the country's public finances.. The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates steady on Thursday, sticking to a gradual approach amid the effects of Trump's trade war and mixed UK economic performance. Last week’s data revealed an unexpected contraction in Britain's economy in January, but also showed a significant rise in public expectations for both near- and long-term inflation. Investors will be paying close attention to any shifts in the views of MPC members, as some have expressed more concern about the risk of persistent inflation than others. . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3012(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3065(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2905(March 17th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2870(38.2%fib).

USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar climbed to an 11-day high against its U.S. counterpart on Monday, supported by a rally in equity markets and optimism over China's plans to boost consumption. On Sunday, China's State Council announced a "special action plan" aimed at stimulating domestic demand.As a major commodities producer, including oil, Canada’s currency is highly sensitive to global economic prospects. Oil prices rose 0.6% to settle at $67.58 per barrel after the United States vowed to continue strikes against Yemen's Houthis until the Iran-aligned group ceases its attacks on shipping.Meanwhile, Canadian home sales dropped 9.8% in February, marking the steepest decline in nearly three years, as market uncertainty kept buyers on the sidelines. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4392(March 17th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4454(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4273(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4184 (Lower BB)

 USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened  on Monday as yen weakened as investors awaited the Bank of Japan's rate decision on Wednesday. While the BOJ is expected to keep interest rates steady, conditions for a potential rate hike are strengthening, with major Japanese companies offering significant pay raises in wage talks with unions for the third consecutive year. Speaking in parliament last week, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda expressed his expectation that wage increases will drive higher consumption, though he voiced concerns about uncertainties surrounding global economic developments. The dollar down 0.10% to 148.46 yen . Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.69(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.83(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.18(Lower BB).

Equities Recap          

European shares gained for a second consecutive session on Monday, driven by strength in energy and healthcare stocks, as investors focused on Germany's debt reform plans and developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by  0.73 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.56 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.57 percent.                

U.S. stocks rose for a second consecutive session on Monday as market participants also analyzed the latest economic data to assess the impact of the Trump administration's policies.

Dow Jones closed up by 0.85 %percent, S&P 500 closed up  by 0.64% percent, Nasdaq settled up  by  0.31% percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold gained ground, hovering around the $3,000 level it breached for the first time last week as investors focused on this week's rate decision from the Federal Reserve.

Spot gold rose 0.56% to $3,000.76 an ounce. U.S. gold futures rose 0.23% to $3,001.50 an ounce.

Oil prices edged higher on Monday as the United States pledged to continue strikes against Yemen's Houthis until the Iran-aligned group halts its attacks on shipping, while upbeat Chinese economic data fueled optimism for increased demand.

Brent futures rose 49 cents, or 0.7%, to $71.07 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 40 cents, or 0.6%, to $67.58.