Market Roundup
• French Government Budget Balance (Nov)-155.4B,-136.2Bprevious
•Greek CPI (YoY) (Dec)2.6%,2.4%previous
•Greek HICP (YoY) (Dec)2.9%,2.8% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 13:30 US CPI (YoY) (Dec): 2.7% forecast, 2.7% previous.
• 13:30 US Core CPI (MoM) (Dec): 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous.
• 13:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) (Nov): -5.6% forecast, 14.9% previous.
• 13:30 US Core CPI (YoY) (Dec): 2.7% forecast, 2.6% previous.
• 13:30 USD CPI Index, n.s.a. (Dec): 324.12 previous.
• 13:30 US Core CPI Index (Dec): 331.07 previous.
• 13:30 US CPI, n.s.a. (MoM) (Dec): 0.25% previous.
• 13:30 US CPI Index, s.a. (Dec): 325.03 previous.
• 13:30 US Real Earnings (MoM) (Dec): -0.1% previous.
• 13:30 US Redbook (YoY): 7.1% previous.
• 13:30 US New Home Sales (Sep): 716K forecast, 800K previous.
• 15:00 New Home Sales (MoM) (Sep): 20.5% previous.
• 15:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Jan): 48.2 forecast, 47.9 previous.
• 16:00 US Cleveland CPI (MoM) (Dec): 0.1% previous.
2.8% Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Tuesday as investors remained uneasy over the Federal Reserve’s independence after the Trump administration opened a criminal investigation into Chair Jerome Powell. Markets continued to digest the probe, which drew condemnation from former Fed leaders and marked a sharp escalation in President Trump’s efforts to pressure the central bank into faster rate cuts. The fallout has seen investors sell the U.S. dollar and Treasuries, while heightened uncertainty has driven some flows into safe-haven gold. The euro eased 0.08% to $1.1657, having risen as much as 0.5% in the previous session. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1688(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1730(SMA20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1623(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1601(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher on Tuesday but gains were capped as lingering uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s independence continued to favour the pound. The Trump administration’s decision to open a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell drew sharp criticism from former Fed leaders and senior Republicans, following an unusually strong public rebuke from Powell, who described the move as a “pretext” to exert presidential influence over interest rates. The probe, disclosed late Sunday after Powell said the Fed had received subpoenas from the U.S. Justice Department, was authorised and initiated by Washington U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro, a close ally of President Donald Trump, according to sources familiar with the matter.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3499(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3566(Jan 12th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3461(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3381(61.8%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar inched higher on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar stayed under pressure amid concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence. Investors sold the greenback and moved into gold after the Trump administration launched a criminal probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, stoking fears of political interference at the central bank. Fitch Ratings said on Monday that the Fed’s independence remains a key pillar supporting the United States’ AA+ sovereign credit rating.In Australia, a Westpac survey showed consumer sentiment slipped in January, reflecting renewed interest rate jitters and an uncertain economic outlook. Meanwhile, markets are pricing in around a 30% chance of a 25-basis-point RBA rate hike on February 3, rising to roughly 80% by May. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6712(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6754(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6678(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6654(38.2%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar climbed to a one-and-a-half-year high against the yen on Tuesday as the Japanese currency remained under pressure amid reports that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may call an early election. Political uncertainty intensified after a coalition partner suggested the possibility of a snap election on February 8 or 15.Japan’s finance minister said she and the U.S. Treasury secretary share concerns over the yen’s one-sided weakness, signalling that Tokyo may intervene to stem the currency’s decline. Her comments underscore growing unease in Japan as the yen slid past 158 per dollar for the first time in about a year following reports of a potential February election.Broader markets remain focused on geopolitical risks, including possible U.S. action in Iran, developments related to Greenland, and a potential Supreme Court ruling on Trump-era tariffs due on Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.00(Psychological level) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.12(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.42(SMA20) a break below could take the pair towards 156.01 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares eased back from record highs on Tuesday as investors digested a wave of corporate updates and grew cautious ahead of U.S. inflation data.
At (GMT 12:20),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.16 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.15 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.30 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices extended gains on Tuesday as escalating concerns over major producer Iran and possible supply disruptions outweighed expectations of increased crude output from Venezuela.
Brent futures jumped $1.20, or 1.9%, to $65.07 a barrel by 1150 GMT, hovering at its highest since mid-November. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed $1.23, or about 2.1%, to $60.73.
