Europe Roundup: Sterling gains against dollar , European shares rise, Gold firms, Oil trades higher-March 17th,2025

Market Roundup

• Italian CPI (YoY) (Feb) 1.6%,1.7%forecast, 1.5% previous           

• Italian CPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.6% previous                     

• Italian CPI Ex Tobacco (YoY) (Feb) 1.5%,1.3% previous

• Italian HICP (YoY) (Feb) 1.7%, 1.7% forecast,1.7% previous                       

• Italian HICP (MoM) (Feb) 0.1%, 0.1% forecast,    -0.8% previous                 

Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)

•12:30 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Mar) -1.90 forecast, 5.70 previous       

•12:30 US Retail Control (MoM) (Feb) 0.2% forecast, -0.8% previous      

•12:30 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) 0.6% forecast,  -0.9% previous          

•12:30 US Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb) 4.20% previous            

•12:30 US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Feb) 0.4% forecast, -0.5% previous               

•12:30 Canada  Foreign Securities Purchases (Jan) 17.44B forecast 14.37B previous          

•12:30 Canada  Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (Jan) 3.770B previous                              

•14:00 USD Business Inventories (MoM) (Jan) 0.3% forecast -0.2% previous       

•14:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index (Mar) 42 forecast ,42 previous               

•14:00 USD Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Jan) 0.4% forecast, -0.1% previous           

•14:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.287% previous  

•14:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.395% previous     

•14:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.363% previous     

•15:30   US 3-Months Bill Auction 4.200% previous           

•15:30   US 6-Months Bill Auction 4.075% previous           

•18:00   US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1)  -2.4% forecast, -2.4% previous                    

EUR/USD: The euro stayed near a five-month high after German parties reached a fiscal agreement on Friday that could boost defense spending and stimulate growth in Europe's largest economy. Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz announced that he had secured key support from the Greens for a significant increase in state borrowing. The deal, which is expected to be approved by the outgoing parliament this week, includes a 500 billion euro ($544 billion) fund for infrastructure and major revisions to borrowing rules. The euro was fetching $1.0875, slightly off the $1.0947 level it hit last Tuesday for the first time since October 11. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0947 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0804(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0693(50%fib).

GBP/USD: The British pound gained on Monday as the dollar faced pressure from President Donald Trump's erratic trade policies and a series of weak economic data. The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates steady on Thursday, sticking to a gradual approach amid the effects of Trump's trade war and mixed UK economic performance. Last week’s data revealed an unexpected contraction in Britain's economy in January, but also showed a significant rise in public expectations for both near- and long-term inflation. Investors will be paying close attention to any shifts in the views of MPC members, as some have expressed more concern about the risk of persistent inflation than others.At GMT 12:17, the pair was trading up 0.28% at 1.2970. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2970(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3049(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2876(March 11th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2837(38.2%fib)

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar held steady against the U.S. dollar on Monday as market participants turned their attention to upcoming global central bank meetings. This week, the focus is on central bank decisions in the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom, as these key choices are expected to influence the future of global monetary policy. While markets anticipate that policymakers will keep rates unchanged, any signals of concerns over a potential U.S. recession could affect currency prices. Australian labor data for February, set to be released on Thursday, is expected to offer crucial insights into the country's labor market health.At GMT 05:44, The Australian dollar  was last  trading up  0.39% to $0.6346. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6332(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6382(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6303(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6279(61.8%fib).

 USD/JPY: The dollar slipped slightly on Monday as investors awaited the Bank of Japan's rate decision on Wednesday. While the BOJ is expected to keep interest rates steady, conditions for a potential rate hike are strengthening, with major Japanese companies offering significant pay raises in wage talks with unions for the third consecutive year. Speaking in parliament last week, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda expressed his expectation that wage increases will drive higher consumption, though he voiced concerns about uncertainties surrounding global economic developments. The dollar down 0.10% to 148.46 yen . Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.16(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.37(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.50(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 146.74(Lower BB).

Equities Recap          

European shares rose on Monday as investors prepared for more trade policy developments, which have contributed to a sharp divergence between the performance of U.S. markets and those in other regions.

At GMT (12:19) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.21 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.46 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.38percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold firmed on Monday, hovering near an all-time high reached in the previous session, as market attention turned to the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve meeting this week.

Spot gold added 0.5% to $2,997.84 an ounce, as of 1141 GMT. Prices hit a record high of $3,004.86 on Friday amid geopolitical uncertainty..S. gold futures eased 0.2% to $3,006.10.

Oil prices rose on Monday after the United States pledged to continue its actions against Yemen's Houthis until the Iran-aligned group halts its attacks on shipping.

Brent futures rose 63 cents, or 0.9%, to $71.21 a barrel by 1017 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 62 cents, or 0.9%, to $67.80.