Market Roundup
•Finnish Jun CPI (YoY) 1.3% , 1.5% previous
• Finnish Jun (MoM) 0.00% ,-0.10% previous
•Swiss Jun PPI (MoM) 0.0%,0.1% forecast,-0.3% previous
•EU May Industrial Production (YoY) -2.9%, -3.0% previous
•EU May Industrial Production (MoM) -0.6% ,-0.9% forecast,-0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada May Wholesale Sales (MoM) 2.0% forecast,2.4% previous
•12:30 Canada May Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 0.3% forecast,1.1% previous
•12:30 US Jul NY Empire State Manufacturing Index -5.50 forecast,-6.00 previous
•12:30 Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM)175.1K previous
•13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.572% previous
•13:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.674% previous
•13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.439% previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.230% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.080% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•16:30 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
•20:35 US FOMC Member Daly Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro rose higher on Monday as investors awaited this week’s European Central Bank meeting for clues on ECB policy outlook. The European Central Bank meets on Thursday to take stock of how the euro zone economy is faring a month after it cut interest rates for the first time five years.Inflation has dropped since the ECB last met but has failed to budge in the dominant services sector. Some policymakers felt cornered into June's rate cut and are in no hurry to flag what's next.The ECB wants to see more evidence that inflation is approaching its 2% target before moving again. Investors will focus on anything ECB chief Christine Lagarde lets slip about whether the rate cut markets are banking on will follow in September - just when they expect a first U.S. rate cut. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0902(23.6%fib).), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0861(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0825(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound strengthened against the dollar as investors wagered that the attack on U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump at the weekend has made him more likely to win the election in November. Political uncertainty in the U.S. sent jitters across global markets after an assassination attempt at presidential candidate Donald Trump on Saturday solidified the Republican's winning bets.Data for UK consumer prices and producer prices will be in the limelight this week, as the Bank of England's next monetary policy decision inches closer.BoE's interest rate-setter Swati Dhingra said British inflation was unlikely to rise sharply again and the central bank should bring down borrowing costs. Investors are pricing in just over 50% chances of a rate cut at the August meeting.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2989(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2905(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2871(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar edged lower against the Swiss franc on Monday as markets grappled with US politics attack on U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump. Later this week, the United States will release data on retail sales, industrial production, housing starts and weekly jobless claims.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will appear at the Economic Club of Washington later on Monday and is bound to be asked for his reaction to last week's subdued inflation reading.Markets are pricing in a 94% chance the Fed will cut rates in September, up from 72% a week earlier.The European Central Bank meets on Thursday and is considered certain to hold rates at 3.75%, ahead of another cut seen likely in September. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8967(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9016(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8929(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8886(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped on Monday as the Japanese yen as investors were cautious about whether Japan intervened to boost its currency. Japanese markets are closed for a holiday on Monday but the yen will be traded across the continent, going into the session near a four-week high against the U.S. dollar following its rise on Friday.Japanese authorities remain tight-lipped on whether they intervened last week. But the yen's sharp rally and daily Bank of Japan money market balance projections strongly point to official action, analysts say.The yen had languished at 38-year lows around 162.00 per dollar last week, but is trading around 157.90 per dollar. Strong resistance can be seen at 158.77(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.23(23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.63 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 156.42 (61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European slipped lower on Monday after a raft of dour updates from companies made investors, already jittery from the assassination attempt on U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump, more cautious.
At (GMT 09:27 ) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.0 5 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.25 percent, France’s CAC was by down 0.20 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil held its ground on Monday as downward pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar and concern about demand in top importer China offset support from political uncertainty in the United States and the Middle East.
Brent crude futures was up 1 cent at $85.04 a barrel by 0825 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 9 cents, or 0.1%, to $82.30.
Gold prices dipped on Monday as the dollar held firm, while investors awaited economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials for further cues on the trajectory of U.S. interest rates.
Spot gold was down 0.4% at $2,402.82 per ounce, as of 0653 GMT. U.S. gold futures were down 0.5% at $2,408.50.
