Market Roundup
•German Exports (MoM) (Aug) 1.3%,-1.0% forecast, 1.7% previous
•German Imports (MoM) (Aug) -3.4%,-2.5% forecast, 5.3% previous
• French Car Registration (YoY) (Sep) -11.1%, -24.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 14:00 US Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Aug) 1.1% previous
•14:30 USCrude Oil Inventories 2.000M forecast 3.889M previous
•14:30 US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW) -0.662M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Imports 0.191M previous
•14:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 0.840M previous
•14:30 US Distillate Fuel Production -0.104M previous
•14:30 US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks -2.300M forecast ,-1.284M previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Inventories -1.500M forecast , 1.119M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 14:30 US Fed Goolsbee Speaks
•14:30 US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
•14:45 US Fed Logan Speaks
•15:00 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against the dollar on Wednesday as traders awaited further cues on the Federal Reserve's policy path. Focus would remain on the moves of the U.S. dollar, with minutes from the Fed's September policy meeting later in the day and a consumer price index reading due on Thursday. The September U.S. Consumer Price Index report, which is set to be released on Thursday, is expected to be the week's most significant data point. The euro was down 0.23% at $1.0954. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1005(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1053(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0944(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0920 (Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound fell to a one-month low versus the dollar on Wednesday, as markets reassessed the Federal Reserve and Bank of England's divergent interest rate policies. Sterling has been under pressure after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey suggested last week that the central bank may take a more aggressive approach to rate cuts if inflation continues to fall.In contrast, the Federal Reserve is seeing a shift in market expectations for major rate decreases by the end of the year, particularly in light of last week's surprisingly positive employment data. Sterling touched $1.3570, its lowest since Sept. 12 and was last at $1.3094. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3127(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3188(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3064(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3000(Psychological level).
NZD/USD: The New Zealand currency sank to a seven-week low on Wednesday as the RBNZ decided cut rates by 50 basis point. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand concluded its latest policy meeting by lowering the official cash rate to 4.75%, following a quarter-point cut in August.Markets, who had already priced in a nearly likely half-point cut, are now leaning toward another similar move in November, with roughly 80% of that assumption factored in. Investors responded by sending the kiwi currency down 1.04%, to $0.6074.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6116(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6142 (Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6071 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6040(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar steadied against the yen on Tuesday as investors assessed the interest rate outlook for the United States.Investors are now looking forward to US September inflation data, as well as minutes from the Fed's recent meeting, which will be released later on Wednesday, to gain insight into the probable direction of interest rates. At GMT 12:22, the pair was trading up 0.42% at 148.80, rebounding from over night low at 147.50 . The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, edged up 0.21% to 102.71 .Strong resistance can be seen at 148.24(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.18(23.6 %fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.61(38.2 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 147.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European stock markets was defensive on Wednesday, with investor confidence hit by the Middle East conflict.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.22 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.23 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.14 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold extended losses for a sixth straight session on Wednesday to hover near the two-week lows hit the day before on lowered expectations of deeper rate cuts, as traders turned their focus to the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and inflation data.
Spot gold fell about 0.2% to $2,617.79 per ounce by 1145 GMT, having touched its lowest level since Sept. 20 on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures for December delivery was steady at $2,636.20.
Oil prices erased early gains on Wednesday as weak demand fundamentals and rising supply countered elevated risk of supply disruption from conflict in the Middle East and Hurricane Milton in the United States.
Brent crude futures were down 36 cents, or 0.47%, at $76.82 a barrel by 1103 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures lost 43 cents, or 0.58%, to $73.14.
