Market Roundup
•UK May Industrial Production (YoY) 0.4%,0.6% forecast, -0.4% previous
•UK May Trade Balance Non-EU: -6.86B, -7.29B previous
• UK May Trade Balance: -17.92B, -15.60B forecast, -19.61B previous
• UK May GDP (MoM): 0.4%, 0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
• UK May GDP (YoY): 1.4%, 1.2% forecast, 0.6% previous
• UK May Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change: 0.9%, 0.7% forecast, 0.7% previous
• UK May Construction Output (YoY): 0.8%, -1.9% forecast, -3.3% previous
• UK May Construction Output (MoM): 1.9%, 0.5% forecast, -1.4% previous
• UK May Manufacturing Production (YoY): 0.6%, 1.2% forecast, 0.4% previous
• UK May Manufacturing Production (MoM): 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, -1.4% previous
• UK May Industrial Production (MoM): 0.2%, 0.3% forecast, -0.9% previous
•German Jun CPI (YoY) 2.2%, 2.2% forecast, 2.4% previous
•German Jun HICP (YoY) 2.5%, 2.5% forecast, 2.8% previous
•German Jun HICP (MoM 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•German Jun CPI (MoM) 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
Looking Ahead economic Data(GMT)
•US June CPI Index, n.s.a.: 314.63 forecast, 314.07 previous
•US June CPI Index, s.a.: 313.23 previous
•US June Core CPI Index: 318.14 previous
•US June Core CPI (MoM): 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•US June CPI (YoY): 3.1% forecast, 3.3% previous
•US June CPI (MoM): 0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
•US June Core CPI (YoY): 3.4% forecast, 3.4% previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 238.50K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,860K forecast, 1,858K previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims: 236K forecast, 238K previous
•US June Real Earnings (MoM): 0.4% previous
•US June Core CPI (MoM): 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•US June CPI (YoY): 3.1% forecast, 3.3% previous
•US June CPI (MoM): 0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
•US June Core CPI (YoY): 3.4% forecast, 3.4% previous
•US June CPI, n.s.a (MoM): 0.17% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•15:30 US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks previous
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro rose higher against dollar on Thursday as focus remained on U.S. inflation data for clues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path.. U.S. Consumer Price Index inflation data is expected at 1230 GMT on Thursday, which could offer fresh clues on the health of demand. A Producer Price Index inflation report is expected on Friday.On an annual basis U.S. June headline CPI is expected to slow to 3.1%, while core CPI is seen steady month-on-month at 0.2%, according to economists polled . Meanwhile, German inflation eased to 2.5% in June, confirming preliminary data and leaving the door open for another European Central Bank rate cut in September. The euro also ticked higher to $1.0847. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0867(23.6%fib).), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0882 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0818 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0783 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling hit a four-month high on Thursday as comments from Bank of England policymakers and better-than-forecast GDP data led traders to reduce bets on an August rate cut in Britain, while they awaited crucial U.S. inflation data.The pound advanced 0.25% to $1.2881, its strongest level since early March, after BoE chief economist Huw Pill said on Wednesday price pressure remained persistent and Thursday data showed British economic output increased by 0.4% in May, above expectations. Main scheduled event of the day - and arguably the week - for currency markets is U.S. inflation data due at 1230 GMT, which will reinforce or challenge market expectations that the Federal Reserve is more likely than not to cut rates in September. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2885(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2919(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2851(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2779(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar eased slightly against the Swiss franc on Thursday as investors awaited crucial US inflation data. The inflation report for June, due later on Thursday, follows a string of soft U.S. economic data that has helped push up the odds of a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve to more than 73%, according to CME's FedWatch tool.Economists polled by Reuters forecast month-on-month core U.S. CPI holding steady at 0.2% in June. Investors will also keep an eye on U.S. jobless claims data and remarks from Fed officials slated to speak later in the day. Despite mostly soft economic data, Fed officials have urged caution on the future path of rate cuts.Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that he was not ready to conclude that inflation is moving sustainably down to the central bank's 2% target, though he has "some confidence of that. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9000(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9052(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8956(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8915(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased on Thursday as traders counted down to U.S. data that is expected to show inflation easing and pave the way for the Fed to start its long-awaited interest rate cut cycle as soon as September. The consumer price report for June is expected to show an annual change of 3.1%, moderating from 3.3% the prior month. As it stands, Fed funds futures are showing a 70% chance that the central bank eases at its September meeting, according to CME FedWatch. But rate-cut expectations have swung wildly this year, and a surprise inflation spike could further jolt projections and rattle asset prices.Fed Chair Jerome Powell, back on Wednesday for his second day of testimony before Congress, said that September rate cut could be seen as a political act ahead of the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election .The yen slipped as far as 161.7 per dollar .Strong resistance can be seen at 161.87(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 162.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 160.61 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 159.70(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares extended their gains on Thursday as more upbeat earning updates rolled in, although the focus is on U.S. inflation data for cues on the timing of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last up by 0.23 percent, Germany's Dax was last up by 0.28 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.39 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices were stable on Thursday with the Brent benchmark holding above $85 a barrel, as investors balanced a bleaker demand growth view from the International Energy Agency (IEA) with a indications of growing U.S. consumption.
Brent futures were up by 21 cents, or 0.25% to $85.29 a barrel by 0938 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 13 cents, or 0.16%, to $82.23.
Gold also crept 0.5% higher to $2,381 an ounce. After a selloff last week, bitcoin has steadied around $58,900.
