Market Roundup
- Sterling recovers all of post-GDP losses, hits 7-week high vs weaker dollar of $1.5288.
- Swiss franc hits 3-week low of 1.04765 francs per euro.
- ECB's Coeure says exit of Greece is not a scenario that we are working on.
- ECB's Noyer: Reshuffle of Greek negotiating team can help negotiations.
- Japan's Nishimura: Economy making steady progress on ending deflation but it is not easy to conquer deflation.
- United Kingdom Q1 GDP prelim yy decreases to +2.4 % (consensus 2.6 %) vs previous 3.0 %.
- United Kingdom Q1 GDP prelim qq decreases to +0.3 % (consensus 0.5 %) vs previous 0.6 %.
- France Apr Consumer Confidence increases to 94 (consensus 94 ) vs previous 93.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0855 EDT/1255 GMT) US Redbook Same-Store Sales Index (Apr 25 week) previous +0.8% y/y.
- (0900 EDT/1300 GMT) US Feb CaseShiller 20, +0.8% m/m sa, +0.2% nsa consensus; previous +0.9%, unchanged.
- (0900 EDT/1300 GMT) US Feb CaseShiller 20, +4.7% y/y consensus; previous +4.6%.
- (1000 EDT/1400 GMT) US Apr consumer confidence index, 102.5 consensus; previous 101.3.
- (1000 EDT/1400 GMT) US Apr Richmond Fed comp/services/mfg shipments indices; previous -8, 12, -13.
- (1030 EDT/1430 GMT) US Apr Dallas Fed services outlook, revenues indices; previous -4.6, 10.7.
Key Events Ahead
- (I1400 EDT/1800 GMT)FOMC begins two-day meeting
FX Recap
EUR/USD is hovering around 1.09 levels. Pair is seen easing above 1.0900 as focus shifts to stops above 1.0930. Widening US/German 2 year spread is in conflict with this rally. Pair bid within 1.05-1.10 range. Resistance is seen at 1.0953 levels. A daily close above this is required for further directions, which may lead the pair towards 1.10 levels. On the other side, support is seen at 1.0859 levels.
GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.5257 after making intraday low at 1.5173 levels. UK prelim GDP data came negative but the downside movement was temporary only. The pair bounced back from 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and made new high at 1.5263 levels. On the top side, resistance is seen at 1.5318, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, a break below 1.5171 may drive the pair towards 1.51 levels.
USD/JPY is below 118.90 levels. It has slightly recovered after making a low of 118.89. Overall trend is neutral and any bullishness can be seen only above 120.06 levels. The market awaits BOJ monetary policy which will be released on April 30th Thursday. The BOJ is expected to inject more easing into the economy. It is also going to release its semi-annual this week, which may include downward revisions to both growth and inflation forecasts. Any break below 118.16 will drag the pair further down till 116.85/115.90 in short term.
USD/CHF current trading pattern suggests consolidation. The pair is currently trading at 0.9575 after making intraday high of 0.9597 levels. Initial support is seen at 0.9548 and resistance at today's high. A daily close above 0.9597 levels is necessary to bring the pair towards 0.9930.
AUDUSD has broken major resistance 0.7845 and reached till 0.7927. Short term trend is bullish as long as support 0.7840 (resistance turned into support) holds. A daily close above 0.7890 will take the pair till 0.7935/0.7950 in short term. On the downside minor support is around 0.7840 and break below will drag the pair further down till 0.7790/0.7750.
