Market Roundup
• Sweden CPI (MoM) (Oct) 0.2%, 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
•Sweden CPIF (CPI at constant interest rates) (MoM) 0.4%, 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
•Sweden CPIF (CPI at constant interest rates) (YoY) 1.5%, 1.3% forecast, 1.1% previous
•German Exports (MoM) (Sep) -1.7%, -1.4% forecast, 1.2% previous
•German Imports (MoM) (Sep) 2.1%, 0.5% forecast, -2.6% previous
•German Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) -2.5%, -1.1% forecast, 2.6% previous
•German Trade Balance (Sep) 17.0B, 20.8B forecast, 21.4B previous
•German Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep) -4.62%, -2.82% previous
•French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q3) -0.1%, 0.0% forecast, 0.0% previous
•Swiss Foreign Reserves (USD) (Oct) 718.8B, 715.7B previous
•Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep) 0.6%, 0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous
•Sweden Interest Rate Decision 2.75%, 2.75% forecast, 3.25% previous
•Italian IHS S&P Global Construction PMI (MoM) (Oct) 48.2, 47.8 previous
•German IHS S&P Global Construction PMI (Oct) 40.2, 41.7 previous
•EU Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) 0.5%, 0.4% forecast, 1.1% previous
• EU Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep) 2.9%, 1.3% forecast, 2.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•12:00 BoE MPC Vote Cut (Nov) 8, 1 previous
•12:00 BoE MPC Vote Hike (Nov) 0, 0 previous
•12:00 BoE MPC Vote Unchanged (Nov) 1, 8 previous
•12:00 BoE Interest Rate Decision (Nov) 4.75% forecast, 5.00% previous
•13:15 Canada Reserve Assets Total (Oct) 128.1B previous
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,880K forecast, 1,862K previous
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 223K forecast, 216K previous
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 236.50K previous
•13:30 US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q3) 2.6% forecast, 2.5% previous
•13:30 Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q3) 1.1% forecast, 0.4% previous
•15:00 US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Sep) 0.1% forecast, 0.5% previous
•15:00 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Sep) -0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous
•15:00 US Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Sep) -0.1% previous
•18:00 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) 2.4% forecast, 2.4% previous
•19:00 US Fed Interest Rate Decision 4.75% forecast, 5.00 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•13:30 ECB's Lane Speaks
•14:15 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
•15:15 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
•15:15 German Buba Vice President Buch Speaks
•19:00 USD FOMC Statements
•19:30 USD FOMC Press Conferences
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Thursday as dollar eased as traders digested Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election. The single European currency shrugged off political crisis in Germany, where the already awkward coalition led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz collapsed late on Wednesday. The Fed announces its policy decision later on Thursday and a 25-basis-point rate cut is fully priced in, though traders have since pared back bets on the scale of future monetary easing by the U.S. central bank. Money markets now see the Fed cutting its policy rate only twice in 2025, lowering it to the 3.75%-4% range and likely taking until July to do so. The euro rose 0.3% to $1.0758, having tumbled as low as $1.068275 for the first time since July 27 on Wednesday . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0779(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.08(6.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0747(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0710(23.6%fib
GBP/USD: The pound rose against dollar on Thursday as investors awaited rate decision by Bank of England rate. The BoE is widely expected to cut rates at this meeting, although what happens after that is less clear, after last week's high-tax, high-spend budget that economists see as inflationary. Sterling was last up 0.46% at $1.2939, having posted its biggest one-day fall against the dollar since March 2023 the previous day, following Trump's clear win over Democrat rival Kamala Harris that prompted investors to dive into U.S. assets that are likely to benefit from the Republican's America First agenda. Sterling rose 0.3% to $1.2919. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2983(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3062 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2878 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2850 (Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar rebounded on Thursday after a sharp sell-off, as investors looked ahead to potential stimulus measures from China following Republican Donald Trump's U.S. election victory. Later in the day, the Federal Reserve is expected to announce the outcome of its latest policy review. With a quarter-point rate cut nearly fully priced into the markets, attention will shift to the Fed's assessment of Trump's policies. The Aussie bounced 0.91 % to $0.6626, having plunged 1% overnight to as low as $0.6513. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6650(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6682(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6624 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6598(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased against yen Thursday as dollar gains cooled off ahead of monetary policy decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points later in the day, and the market focus will be on any clues suggesting the U.S. central bank could skip a cut in December.The Fed's decision comes on the back of the U.S. presidential election, with a victory by Trump fuelling questions over whether the bank may proceed to reduce rates at a slower.At GMT 11:44, the pair was trading down 0.41% at 154.03, after hitting daily high at 154.72 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.86(23.6 %fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.70(Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.82(38.2%fib a break below could take the pair towards 151.47(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares jumped more than 1% on Wednesday, tracking a rise in U.S. stock futures, as Donald Trump was elected U.S. president and Republicans took control of at least one chamber of Congress.
At (GMT 11:48),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.04 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.40 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.66 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Thursday but traded near a three-week low, as market participants awaited an expected rate cut decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve later in the day.
Spot gold gained 0.3% to $2,667.40 per ounce, as of 1051 GMT, after hitting its lowest level since Oct. 15 earlier in the session.U.S. gold futures shed 0.1% to $2,674.20.
