Market Roundup
• Italian Business Confidence (Oct) 85.8 ,87.0 forecast,86.6 previous
• Italian Consumer Confidence (Oct) 97.4 , 98.5 forecast,98.3 previous
• German Business Expectations (Oct) 87.3 ,86.8 forecast, 86.4 previous
• German Current Assessment (Oct) 85.7 ,84.4 forecast, 84.4 previous
• German Ifo Business Climate Index (Oct) 86.5 ,85.6 forecast, 85.4 previous
• EUR M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Sep) 3.2%,2.9% forecast, 2.9% previous
• EUR M3 Money Supply (Sep) 16,548.7B,,435.2B previous
• EU Private Sector Loans (YoY) (Sep) 0.7% , 0.8% forecast, 0.6% previous
• France Jobseekers Total (Sep) 2,837.9K 2,951.5K previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep) -0.1% forecast ,0.5% previous
•12:30 US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep -1.1% forecast , 0.0% previous
•12:30 Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Sep -0.2% previous
•12:30 US Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) (Sep) 0.3% previous
•12:30 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug 0.3% forecast , 0.4% previous
•12:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Sep) -1.3% previous
•12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Sep 0.2% forecast , 0.0% previous
•12:30 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 0.5% forecast,0.9% previous
•14:00 US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Oct) 2.9% forecast , 2.7% previous
•14:00 US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Oct)3.0% forecast , 3.1% previous
•14:00 US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Oct)72.9 forecast , 72.9 previous
•14:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct) 68.9 forecast , 70.1 previous
•14:00 US Michigan Current Conditions (Oct) 62.7 forecast , 63.3 previous
•14:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) 3.4% forecast , 3.4% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•15:00 US Fed Collins Speaks
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Friday as investors were cautious on uncertainty about the Nov. 5 U.S. election outcome. Opinion polls show the race to the White House remains tight, with less than two weeks to go before the Nov. 5 presidential election. The greenback is strengthening as investors revise their expectations away from a significant Federal Reserve rate cut and factor in the potential for a second presidency for Republican Donald Trump, who has promised high tariffs and tax cuts. Those policies would stoke inflation and slow rate cuts, and could affect trading partners' currencies.The market was completely pricing in a cut of at least 25 bps a month ago, with a 58.2% chance of a 50 bps cut, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0816(SMA5 ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0847(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0785(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0700(Psychological level).
GBP/USD: The pound is on track for its largest four-week decline in over a year, remaining steady on Friday as investors favor the dollar amid turbulent political and macroeconomic conditions. Sterling traders are gearing up for the Labour government's first budget on October 30.Finance Minister Rachel Reeves announced plans to adjust the measure of public debt targeted in the upcoming budget, allowing for significantly more borrowing for investment. This news led to an increase in gilt yields but failed to provide support for the pound.At GMT 12:20, sterling was trading flat at $1.2982, after hitting two-month lows earlier in the week. It has declined 0.5% this week, contributing to a total loss of 3% over the past four weeks ,the largest drop since September 2023. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3054(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3123(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2912(Oct 23rd low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2901 (Lower BB).
NZD/USD: New Zealand drifted lower against US dollar on Friday as kiwi dollar was pressured by rebounding US dollar. Dollar is gaining ground as investors shift their outlook, scaling back expectations for major rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and contemplating the likelihood of a second term for Republican Donald Trump.On the data front ,Consumer confidence in New Zealand plummeted in October, even as the central bank significantly accelerated its interest rate cuts during the month.Confidence dropped by 4 points in October from September, reaching a reading of 91.2 points. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6116(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6161 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6059 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6000(Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar held near three month high against the yen on Friday as investors awaited election in Japan over the weekend that is likely to complicate the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) policy normalisation plans. Japanese voters will vote on Sunday for a general election, with opinion polls showing the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) could lose its long-held dominance.The uncertainty and prospect of political instability could have implications for the BOJ's rate hike path, as it tries to steer a smooth lift-off from near-zero interest rates. The central bank next meets on Oct. 30-31.The dollar was last 0.04% higher at 151.94 per yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.12 (23.6 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 153.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.23(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 150.88(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
Europe's main stock index swung between losses and gains on Friday, and was set for a weekly fall, with a handful of weak corporate earnings from auto-related companies such as Mercedes-Benz and Valeo and appliances-maker Electrolux denting investor sentiment.
At (GMT 12:20),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.05 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.01percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.22 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell on Friday as some investors booked profit after a recent rally that pushed bullion to a record high, although ongoing tensions in the Middle East helped limit the decline.
Spot gold eased 0.4% to $2,724.50 per ounce by 1159 GMT. Prices had hit an all-time high of $2,758.37 on Wednesday.
Oil prices were heading for a weekly gain of almost 3% as Friday's prices ticked higher, with traders kept on edge by simmering tensions in the Middle East ahead of a planned resumption in Gaza ceasefire talks in the coming days.
Brent crude futures rose 76 cents, or 1.02%, to $75.14 a barrel by 1214 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 77 cents, or 1.1%, at $70.96.
