Market Roundup
• EU Sentix Investor Confidence (Nov) -7.4, -3.9 forecast, -5.4 previous
•Greek CPI (YoY) (Oct) 2.0%, 1.9% previous
•Greek HICP (YoY) (Oct) 1.6%, 1.8% previous
•Greek Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep) 6.8%,-2.8% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.059% previous
• 13:00 French French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.010% previous
• 13:00 French French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.029% previous
•15:00 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Aug) -0.2% previous
•15:00 US Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Aug) 1.4% previous
•16:30 US 3-Months Bill Auction 3.815% previous
•16:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 3.700% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Monday as euro was lifted by optimism that an end to a historic U.S. government shutdown was in sight. The U.S. Senate advanced a measure to reopen the government after a 40-day closure that has left federal workers unpaid, disrupted food aid, and snarled air travel. Lawmakers plan to amend a House-passed bill to fund operations through January 30 and include three full-year appropriations. The prolonged shutdown has increasingly weighed on the U.S. economy and left the Federal Reserve with limited economic data. On the data front, The Sentix index gauging investor morale in the euro zone fell to -7.4 in November from -5.4 in October, below the -4.0 forecast by analysts.The survey of 1,069 investors from November 6-8 showed the assessment of the current situation deteriorated to -17.5 in November from -16.0 in October, Sentix said on Monday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1560(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1614(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1475(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1462(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher against the dollar on Monday as optimism grew that an end to the historic U.S. government shutdown could be near. Global sentiment improved after the U.S. Senate on Sunday advanced a measure aimed at reopening the federal government and funding it through January, ending a shutdown that has sidelined federal workers, delayed food aid and snarled air travel. The 40-day shutdown has weighed heavily on the U.S. economy, leaving federal employees unpaid and restricting key data releases, forcing the Federal Reserve to operate with limited information. Traders are also looking ahead to late November's UK budget. Analysts expect that finance minister Rachel Reeves will raise taxes, though the precise changes remain to be seen, amid broad speculation in British media .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3178(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3262(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2977(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar firmed on Monday after comments from RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser boosted confidence in the country’s economic outlook. Speaking at a UBS conference in Sydney, Hauser said Australia’s economy continues to see demand outpacing potential output, marking the tightest recovery since the early 1980s. The RBA left interest rates unchanged at 3.6% last week, adopting a more cautious stance after three rate cuts this year amid rising inflation, firm consumer demand, and a strengthening housing market. Attention now turns to Australia’s October employment report due Thursday, with a Reuters poll forecasting a 15.0K job gain and unemployment steady at 4.4%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6603(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6655(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6538(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6466(61.8%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher against the yen on Friday amid reports suggesting Japan’s new government could adopt a more flexible fiscal stanceJapanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Monday said she would work on setting a new fiscal target extending through several years to allow more flexible spending, essentially watering down the country's commitment to fiscal consolidation.Separately, the Bank of Japan's summary of opinions on Monday also said that the "fog surrounding Japan's economic outlook has begun to clear compared with July," potentially paving the way for a rate hike in December, which would help support the currency. The dollar was up 0.5% at against the yen at 154.22 yen, back threatening the nine-month highs it reached earlier in the month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.58(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.90 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 152.98 (SMA20).
Equities Recap
European shares climbed on Monday, tracking global gains as hopes grew that the U.S. government shutdown may soon end, while Diageo rose after naming a new CEO.
At GMT (13:22) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.24 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.89 percent, France’s CAC was down by 1.46 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold jumped 2% on Monday to a two-week high, as weak U.S. data reinforced bets on a Fed rate cut next month and a softer dollar boosted demand.
Spot gold climbed 2.1% to $4,082.17 per ounce by 1138 GMT, hitting its highest level since October 27. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 2% to $4,090.50 per ounce.
Oil prices edged higher on Monday as investors assessed a potential end to the U.S. government shutdown and concerns around oversupply in the crude market.
Brent crude futures rose 31 cents, or 0.49%, to $63.94 a barrel by 1300 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $60.05 a barrel, up 30 cents, or 0.5%.
