Market Roundup
•Portuguese Apr CPI (YoY) 2.2%, 2.2% forecast,2.3% previous
•Portuguese Apr Portuguese CPI (MoM) 0.5%, 0.5% forecast, 2.0% previous
• Canada Mar Building Permits (MoM) -11.7% ,-4.6% forecast, 9.3% previous
•French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.481%, 3.460% previous
•French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.781%, 3.803% previous
•French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.670%, 3.666% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•15:00 US Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.00% previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.250% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.155% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•13:00 US FOMC Member Mester Speaks
• 13:00 US Fed Governor Jefferson Speaks
•13:00 German Buba Vice President Buch Speaks
•16:45 SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged up against dollar on Monday as investors awaited U.S. inflation data releases this week, alongside a series of economic reports from the eurozone. All eyes will be on the U.S. producer and consumer prices inflation readings, due on Tuesday and Wednesday, which will further set the tone for the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts this year. Meanwhile, euro zone's final inflation and flash first-quarter GDP in the latter half of the week will be scrutinized to gauge the interest rate path for the European Central Bank, which has indicated a June cut, flagged uncertainties around policy outlook beyond that, and stressed its independence from the Fed. The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.0785.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0810(23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0826(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0732 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0671(50% fib).
GBP/USD: The pound steadied against dollar on Monday ahead of crucial labor market data scheduled for release on Tuesday, which could influence the Bank of England's decision regarding interest rates. There's speculation that if the data indicates weakness, it may prompt the Bank of England to consider cutting interest rates at its June meeting. The pound was last up less than 0.1% against the dollar at $1.2529, having fallen 0.2% against the U.S. currency last week. The BoE last week left its Bank Rate unchanged at a 16-year high of 5.25%, but Governor Andrew Bailey said he was optimistic that inflation was moving in the right direction. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2540 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2597(23.6 % fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2486 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2445 ( 61.8% fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar eased against the Swiss franc on Monday as markets look ahead this week to U.S. CPI data. This week presents an opportunity for the market, as it anticipates key inflation data. Tuesday will unveil the producer price index (PPI), followed by the consumer price index (CPI) on Wednesday. Recent softer-than-expected U.S. labour market data and a Federal Reserve that ruled out further interest rate rises saw traders price in more easing from the Fed this year. Markets are pricing in around an 80% chance of a rate cut by the Fed's September meeting, with about 40 basis points (bps) of reductions in total expected in 2024. At 12:56 GMT, the dollar was 0.02 percent lower versus the Swiss franc at 0.9055 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9076 (May 10th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9150 (23.6% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9039 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9017(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against yen on Monday as markets participants awaited key U.S. CPI data this week. The US producer price index (PPI) data is scheduled for release on Tuesday, followed by the consumer price index (CPI) on Wednesday.Median forecasts are for core consumer prices to rise 0.3% in the month, compared with 0.4% in March, pulling the annual rate down to 3.6 . Traders expect the US central bank to start its easing cycle in September. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of six others, was little changed at 105.28, following its first rise in three weeks. The dollar traded at 155.87 yen .Strong resistance can be seen at 156.29 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.38(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 152.86(50% fib).
Equities Recap
Europe's shares fell on Monday as investors geared up for this week's key U.S. inflation prints.
At (GMT 13:00 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.24 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.20 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.27 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices inched down on Monday as investors awaited key US inflation reports, which could shed more light on the timing of the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut.
Spot gold fell 0.2% at $2,354.77/oz by 4.48am GMT. Prices hit a two-week high in the previous session.US gold futures fell 0.6% to $2,361.
Oil prices edged higher on Monday after losing about $1 a barrel in the previous session on signs that U.S. policymakers are likely to keep interest rates higher for longer.
Brent crude futures were up 55 cents at $83.34 a barrel by 1239 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 62 cents to $78.88.
