Market Roundup
•Italian IHS S&P Global Construction PMI (MoM) (Sep) 47.8 , 46.6 previous
•German IHS S&P Global Construction PMI (Sep) 41.7 , 38.9 previous
•French IHS S&P Global Construction PMI (MoM) (Sep) 37.9 , 40.1 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•12:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Sep): 3.8% forecast , 3.8% previous
•12:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep): 0.3% forecast , 0.4% previous
•12:30 US Average Weekly Hours (Sep): 34.3 forecast, 34.3 previous
•12:30 US Government Payrolls (Sep): 24.0K previous
•12:30 US Manufacturing Payrolls (Sep): -5K forecast, -24K previous
•12:30 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep): 147K forecast, 142K previous
•US Participation Rate (Sep): 62.7% previous
•12:30 US Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep): 125K, 118K previous
•12:30 US U6 Unemployment Rate (Sep): 7.9% previous
•12:30 US Unemployment Rate (Sep): 4.2% forecast, 4.2% previous
•14:00 Canada Ivey PMI n.s.a (Sep) 50.3 previous
•14:00 Canada Ivey PMI (Sep): 50.3 forecast ,48.2 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 484 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 587 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•13:10 ECB's Elderson Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro was little changed against the dollar on Friday as focus shifted towards U.S. payrolls report to gauge the trajectory of the Federal Reserve's policy path. The U.S. nonfarm payroll data is due at 1230 GMT. Expectations are for the world's largest economy to have added 140,000 jobs last month, slightly down from August's 142,000 increase. New York Fed President John Williams and Chicago Fed President Austan are also scheduled to speak later in the day. A slew of data releases this week have pointed to a U.S. economy still in solid shape, after the country's services sector activity jumped to a 1-1/2-year high in September amid strong growth in new orders, while a separate report from the Labor Department on Thursday showed the labour market gliding at the end of the third quarter. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1064(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1110(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1019(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0989 (Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound gained ground against the dollar on Friday after a steep plunge a day earlier when Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey had said more aggressive interest rate cuts might be on the table. Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill on Friday called for a more cautious approach to lowering rates, aiding sterling's 0.3% rise on the day to $1.317. On the data front ,survey showed that the construction sector grew at its fastest pace in nearly two and a half years in September, with some companies concerned about possible spending cuts and tax increases in finance minister Rachel Reeves' first budget on Oct. 30. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3170(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3257(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3075(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3004(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar was little changed against dollar on Friday as investors awaited U.S. non-farm payrolls figures due later in the day. The U.S. jobs report is released comes in the backdrop of a strengthening US economic outlook and a more assertive tone from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Top of FormBottom of FormThe Australian dollar gained 0.04% to $0.6842, however, it is down 0.8% for the week, marking its first weekly decline in four weeks. Markets are pricing in a 33% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates in November by 50 basis points (bps), down from 49% last week, the CME Fed Watch tool showed. The Fed cut interest rates last month by 50 bps. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6888(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6909(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6859(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6857(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against the yen on Friday as safe heaven yen strengthens amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. U.S. President Joe Biden said on Thursday that the U.S. is discussing strikes on Iran's oil facilities as retaliation for Tehran's missile attack on Israel, while Israel's military hit Beirut with new air strikes in its battle against Lebanese armed group Hezbollah.His comments sparked a surge in oil prices, which had already been on the rise this week following the widening conflict in the Middle East. Focus also turned to the key U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due later on Friday, which would provide further clues on the Federal Reserve's rate outlook. Strong resistance can be seen at 147.93 (Oct 4th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.26 (23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 146.20(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 145.32 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares inched higher on Friday, supported by regional energy stocks after crude oil prices climbed on concerns over a deeper conflict in the Middle East.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.50 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.32 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.46 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were little changed on Friday as investors maintained caution ahead of a key U.S. jobs report that could influence the Federal Reserve's rate path.
Spot gold was nearly steady at $2,659.13 per ounce by 1019 GMT, after scaling a record high of $2,685.42 last week.U.S. gold futures were flat at $2,679.10.
Oil prices rose further on Friday and were on track for strong weekly gains as investors weighed the prospect of a wider Middle East conflict disrupting crude flows against a well-supplied global market.
Brent crude futures were up 55 cents, or 0.7%, at $78.17 a barrel, as of 0831 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 50 cents, also 0.7%, at $74.21 a barrel.
