Market Roundup
• German PPI (MoM) (Sep)-0.1%,0.1% forecast,-0.5% previous
• German PPI (YoY) (Sep) -1.7% -2.2% previous
•EU Current Account (Aug) 11.9B, 22.5Bforecast,27.7B previous
•EU Account n.s.a. (Aug) 13.0B,35.0B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 12:30 Canada IPPI (YoY) (Sep) 4.0% previous
• 12:30 Canada IPPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.5% previous
• 12:30 Canada RMPI (MoM) (Sep) -0.6% previous
• 12:30 Canada RMPI (YoY) (Sep) 3.2% previous
• 13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.019% previous
• 13:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 1.958% previous
• 13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.009% previous
• 14:00 US Business Inventories (MoM) (Aug) 0.1%forecast, 0.2% previous
• 14:00 US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Aug) 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
• 14:00 US Leading Index (MoM) (Sep) 0.1% forecast, -0.5% previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 3.845% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 3.685% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
•17:00 German Buba Balz Speaks
•19:00 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
Currency Forecast
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Monday as investor attention shifted toward political developments in Japan and the euro area, while persistent concerns over U.S. credit risks kept sentiment subdued. Markets remain hesitant to fully discount French political risk from the euro, with the government’s decision to freeze its controversial pension reform providing only temporary relief while further complicating fragile budget negotiations.S&P Global downgraded France’s credit rating by one notch on Friday, citing political instability as a threat to the government’s fiscal repair efforts. The move followed recent downgrades by Fitch, DBRS, and S&P within just over a month, with Moody’s set to deliver its own review of France later this week.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1678(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1753(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1641(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1523(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound eased on Monday as investors turned cautious ahead of U.K. inflation data later in the week and as fiscal concerns build in the lead-up to November's U.K. autumn budget.Inflation data on Wednesday will be monitored for clues on the path of interest-rate cuts by the Bank of England. A weaker-than-expected CPI reading could reinforce expectations for earlier policy easing, while a surprise uptick in inflation may prompt markets to scale back bets on near-term cuts.The data will be crucial in shaping sentiment ahead of the BoE’s next meeting, as policymakers balance the risk of slowing growth against still-elevated price pressures. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3500(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3530(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3344(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3309(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar firmed on Monday as easing U.S.-China trade tensions lifted global risk appetite. Sentiment improved after U.S. President Donald Trump said a 100% tariff on Chinese imports would be unsustainable and confirmed plans to meet with President Xi Jinping, soothing fears of a renewed trade confrontation. Trump expressed optimism that relations with China would “be fine.” Meanwhile, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is set to meet President Trump in Washington later Monday, with trade and regional security expected to top the agenda..
. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6539(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6685(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6471(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.64507(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher against the yen on Monday as the Japanese currency weakened ahead of a key political shift in Tokyo. Hardline conservative Sanae Takaichi appeared set to become Japan’s first female prime minister following a decisive parliamentary vote on Tuesday. Her expected premiership, supported by a new coalition with the right-wing Japan Innovation Party, has stirred concerns over potential fiscal expansion, adding pressure on the yen.Meanwhile, Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takata who opposed the decision to keep rates steady in September reiterated his call for resuming rate hikes, offering some support to the currency. The BOJ’s next policy meeting is scheduled for October 30, with markets pricing in a 23% chance of a 25-basis-point increase.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.30(Oct 17th high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.44 (Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 152.15 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Monday as worries over U.S. banking stability eased and comments from U.S. President Donald Trump helped soothe trade tensions, prompting investors to rotate back into risk assets
At (GMT 12:20),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.42 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.15 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.05 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Monday, recovering slightly after last week’s sharp decline from record highs above $4,300 an ounce, as comments from U.S. President Donald Trump eased U.S.-China trade tensions and pushed investors toward riskier assets.
Spot gold was up 0.4% at $4,263.59 per ounce, as of 0203 GMT, having shed about 1.8% on Friday, the most since mid-May.
Oil prices fell on Monday, weighed down by concerns of a global supply glut, with lingering U.S.-China trade tensions raising fears of slower economic growth and weaker energy demand.
Brent crude futures were down 41 cents, or 0.7%, at $60.88 a barrel as of 1210 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures fell 40 cents, or 0.4%, to $57.14.
