German bunds nearly flat in muted session ahead of Eurozone January retail sales, ECB’s policy decision

The German bunds remained nearly flat during European session Monday amid a muted trading session that witnessed data of little economic significance ahead of Eurozone’s retail sales for the month of January, scheduled to be released on March 5 by 10:00GMT.

Also, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy meeting, due to be held on March 7 by 12:45GMT will add further direction to the debt market.

The German 10-year bond yields, which move inversely to its price, remained flat at 0.516 percent, the yield on 30-year note hovered around 0.816 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year rose 1 basis point to -0.516 percent by 09:40GMT.

The main event this week will be the conclusion of the ECB policy meeting on Thursday. There are three main things to watch: the updated staff economic forecasts; possible amendments to the forward guidance on rates; and news on plans to offer new longer-term liquidity operations, Daiwa Capital Markets reported.

First, as soon as they were published in December, the ECB’s forecasts looked woefully optimistic. And at the policy meeting in January, the Governing Council acknowledged that subsequent economic data had been weaker than it expected, and also revised its assessment of the risks to the outlook, judging them to be skewed to the downside.

Comments last week from Irish Central Bank Governor and ECB Chief Economist-designate Philip Lane suggested that the December projections would need only “reasonably small adjustments”, a sentiment tallying with comments of other Governing Council members. Certainly, it would be out of character for the ECB to make marked downward revisions.

That, however, would raise the risks that the forecasts to be published this week will have to be revised down again in June, which would represent a fifth consecutive negative adjustment to the ECB’s growth outlook, the report added.   

Meanwhile, the German DAX remained nearly flat at 11,598.89 by 09:50GMT, while at 09:00GMT, the FxWirePro's Hourly Euro Strength Index remained neutral at -50.84 (higher than +75 represents bullish trend). For more details, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex