BCA Research Warns U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Could Collapse, Maintains Cautious Equity Outlook 
Goldman Sachs, ANZ Cut Oil Forecasts Amid U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Hopes 
Trump Slams Iran Over Strait of Hormuz Oil Restrictions Amid Fragile Ceasefire 
Asian Markets Retreat as Gulf Crisis Fuels Oil Surge and Inflation Fears 
U.S. Natural Gas Market Faces Short-Term Pressure but Long-Term Demand Surge 
China's Factory-Gate Prices Rise for First Time in Over Three Years Amid Global Cost Pressures 
Chinese Brands Are Taking Over Brazil — And It's Just Getting Started 
Bank of Japan Governor Signals Accommodative Stance Amid Negative Real Rates 
U.S. Inflation Surges in March as Iran War and Tariffs Drive Prices Higher 
Colombia and Ecuador Trade War Escalates With Retaliatory Tariffs 
Gold Prices Rise on Weaker Dollar and Ceasefire Hopes 
Bank of America Maintains Forecast for Two Fed Rate Cuts in 2026 Despite Inflation Risks 
White House Warns Staff Over Insider Trading Amid Suspicious Oil Market Bets 
Trump Claims Oil Tankers Heading to U.S. Amid Iran War and Strait of Hormuz Crisis 
Japan Consumer Confidence Drops Sharply Amid Rising Fuel Costs and Middle East Tensions 
Oil Prices Rebound as Hormuz Disruptions and Middle East Tensions Rattle Markets 
Middle East Conflict Threatens Global Economic Stability, World Bank Warns 
India’s equity market remains the top choice among emerging economies, with Morgan Stanley forecasting a 14% increase in the Sensex by 2025. Supported by economic stability and strong earnings, the market promises growth amid global uncertainties.
India’s Sensex Targets 14% Growth by 2025, Morgan Stanley Says
According to Morgan Stanley's base case, the benchmark BSE Sensex could see a 14% increase by December 2025, making India's stock market the go-to place for emerging market investors, Investing.com reports.
Despite global growth risks and near-term challenges, India stands out due to its fundamentals, which include strong domestic inflows, stable macroeconomic conditions, and healthy earnings growth.
“With strong earnings, macro stability and domestic flows, it is hard to argue against India's investment case,” according to the analyst.
A stable inflow of non-portfolio foreign currency, a policy that targets inflation with some leeway, and better terms of trade all work to India's advantage.
Macroeconomic Stability and Premium Valuation
Due to these reasons, India's beta to emerging markets is now approximately 0.4, which supports its premium value.
India is poised to take advantage of a private capital investment cycle, deleveraging of corporate balance sheets, and a structural growth in discretionary consumption, with earnings forecast to expand at an annual rate of 18-20% over the next four to five years.
Equity valuations are supported by a steady supply of domestic risk capital, which keeps local demand for equities strong and reduces the impact of external volatility.
Long-Term Growth Fueled by Private Investment
In their base case analysis, Morgan Stanley assumes that government spending cuts would be maintained, private investment will increase, and the real growth-to-interest rate gap will remain favorable.
Expected drivers of Sensex earnings compounding at 17.3% annually until FY27 are stable oil prices, no U.S. recession, and minor interest rate reductions. Even for this time frame, the brokerage's prediction is 15% higher than the consensus.
Since the COVID years, the Indian market has been dominated by macro forces, but now it's shaping up to be a stock pickers' market.
Cyclical Sectors and Small Caps Highlight Strategy
Financials, consumer discretionary, industrials, and technology are cyclicals, thus Morgan Stanley recommends being overweight in those areas and underweight in others.
Investors are putting their faith in domestic economic drivers by favouring small and mid-cap equities over large caps.
