Japan’s Wholesale Inflation Slows in May Amid Falling Import Costs

Japan’s annual wholesale inflation slowed in May, driven by declining import prices for raw materials, offering temporary relief to the Bank of Japan (BOJ) as it weighs future interest rate hikes. According to official data, the corporate goods price index (CGPI), which tracks prices companies charge each other for goods and services, rose 3.2% year-over-year—below the market forecast of 3.5% and down from April’s revised 4.1% increase. This marks the slowest growth since September 2023.

Falling steel, chemical, and non-ferrous metals prices contributed to the moderation. Steel prices dropped 4.8%, chemicals declined 3.1%, and non-ferrous metals fell 2.1%. The yen-based import price index also declined 10.3% from a year earlier, accelerating from April’s 7.3% drop, as a stronger yen reduced the cost of raw material imports.

However, inflationary pressure persists in food and beverages, which saw prices rise 4.2% in May, up from 4.0% in April. This highlights growing cost-passing behavior by companies despite global uncertainties and weak domestic consumption.

Japan’s core consumer inflation stood at 3.5% in April, exceeding the BOJ’s 2% target for over three years. Yet, concerns over delayed trade talks with the U.S., especially regarding tariffs on auto exports, are clouding the economic outlook. The BOJ cut its growth forecast on May 1, indicating potential delays in future rate hikes.

Economists expect the BOJ to hold interest rates steady through September, with a possible hike later this year. While food inflation may ease, the central bank remains cautious, awaiting stronger wage growth before tightening policy further.

The BOJ last raised rates in January to 0.5%, ending its decade-long ultra-loose monetary stance. Market watchers continue to monitor inflation trends and trade negotiations closely.