Trump Administration Halts Immigration, Green Card, and Citizenship Processing for 19 Countries 
China’s Expanding Maritime Military Presence Alarms Taiwan and Japan 
Hong Kong Faces Low Turnout in “Patriots-Only” Election Amid Public Grief After Deadly Fire 
Honduras Election Turmoil Deepens as Nasralla Alleges Fraud in Tight Presidential Race 
UN General Assembly Demands Russia Return Ukrainian Children Amid Ongoing Conflict 
U.S.-Russia Talks Leave Ukraine Peace Efforts Uncertain 
U.S. Expected to Expand Travel Ban to More Than 30 Countries 
Pentagon Probe Finds Hegseth’s Use of Signal Risked Exposing Sensitive Yemen Strike Details 
Trump Administration Tightens H-1B Visa Vetting With New Focus on Free Speech and Censorship 
China Urged to Prioritize Economy Over Territorial Ambitions, Says Taiwan’s President Lai 
Australia Progresses AUKUS Review as U.S. Affirms Strong Support 
Trump and Lula Discuss Trade, Sanctions, and Security in “Productive” Phone Call 
Cuba Reaffirms Anti-Drug Cooperation as Tensions Rise in the Caribbean 
Honduras Election Turmoil Intensifies as Nasralla Blames Trump for Shift in Results 
Maduro Confirms “Respectful” Call With Trump, Signals Openness to Diplomatic Dialogue 
Michael Dell Pledges $6.25 Billion to Boost Children’s Investment Accounts Under Trump Initiative 
Taiwan Signals Openness to Renew Ties with Honduras as Election Unfolds 
As of July 12, 2024, Vice President Kamala Harris has overtaken President Joe Biden in PredictIt’s 2024 general election market, priced at $0.23 compared to Biden’s $0.21. Former President Donald Trump remains the market leader at $0.62.
Donald Trump Leads PredictIt Market for 2024 Election; Harris Surpasses Biden in Democratic Race
As of July 12, 2024, the PredictIt market is a fascinating landscape of uncertainty. Former President Donald Trump (R) is currently priced at $0.62, Vice President Kamala Harris at $0.23, and President Joe Biden (D) at $0.21 in the 2024 presidential general election market.
According to Ballotpedia News, since May 16, 2024, Trump has maintained his position as the market leader, but the share prices of other candidates are close behind, with no other candidate exceeding $0.10. The market's assessment of the likelihood of an event occurring is approximately reflected in the share price, which fluctuates by market demand.
Biden is currently dominating the Democratic presidential primary market at $0.43, with Harris following at $0.38. No other candidate has a share price equal to or greater than $0.10.
Trump is currently the undisputed leader in the Republican presidential primary market, with a commanding share price of $0.94. No other candidate comes close, with a share price equal to or greater than $0.10.
PredictIt Faces Uncertain Future Amid CFTC Rule Proposal to Ban Election Wagering Markets
PredictIt, a pioneering online political futures market, is a powerful tool for understanding the outcome of elections. Users purchase shares based on the outcome of political events using real money. Several contracts are associated with each event, such as an election, each corresponding to a distinct result. Services like PredictIt can provide invaluable insight into the outcome of elections.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) voted 3-2 on May 10, 2024, to issue a rule proposal that could potentially prohibit election wagering markets, according to Reuters. The commission declared its intention to revoke PredictIt's no-action letter on August 4, 2022, with an effective date of February 2023. PredictIt announced on its website that it would cease trading on February 15, 2023, unless the CFTC's policy is altered. In March 2023, the CFTC overturned this decision, enabling the platform to operate legally.
