Oil Prices Rise as Geopolitical Tensions and Supply Risks Intensify

Oil prices climbed for a second straight session on Tuesday as traders evaluated escalating geopolitical risks, including Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy facilities and growing friction between the U.S. and Venezuela. Brent crude futures edged up 0.2% to $63.31 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased 0.3% to $59.50. Both benchmarks had already gained more than 1% on Monday, supported by concerns over potential disruptions to global oil supply.

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium confirmed it has restarted shipments through one of its Black Sea terminal mooring points following a significant drone attack on November 29. According to Russia’s Kommersant newspaper, operations resumed at Single Point Mooring 1, though SPM 2 remains damaged. Market analysts at Ritterbusch and Associates noted that ongoing military activity reduces the likelihood of a near-term peace agreement and could tighten diesel and gasoil markets, potentially boosting overall crude prices.

On the diplomatic front, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy reiterated that Kyiv’s main priorities are safeguarding sovereignty and securing reliable security guarantees, adding that territorial issues remain the most challenging obstacles. Meanwhile, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to brief the Kremlin on Tuesday as tensions continue to rise.

Concerns over supply constraints were amplified by ANZ, which highlighted growing uncertainty surrounding Venezuelan oil exports amid an expanding U.S. campaign. Over the weekend, President Donald Trump signaled a tougher stance, stating that Venezuelan airspace should be considered “closed in its entirety,” though he offered no specifics.

Adding another layer to the market outlook, OPEC+ confirmed a modest production increase for December but will pause further hikes in the first quarter of next year due to fears of oversupply. Ritterbusch analysts suggested that despite recent price gains, weakening global balances could still push WTI and Brent toward $55 and $59 respectively.

This combination of geopolitical tension, supply risks, and shifting OPEC+ policy continues to shape a volatile but closely watched oil market.