Oil Prices Slide on OPEC+ Supply Concerns and U.S. Tariff Uncertainty

Oil prices extended losses on Friday, poised for a second consecutive weekly decline amid growing expectations of an OPEC+ production hike and renewed trade tensions following a court decision on U.S. tariffs. Brent crude slipped 0.48% to $63.84 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped 0.51% to $60.63. Both benchmarks are down approximately 1.5% this week.

Market sentiment was dampened by the likelihood that OPEC+—the alliance of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies—could announce another production increase during Saturday’s meeting. Analysts, including Westpac’s Robert Rennie, suggest the upcoming output hike may exceed the 411,000 barrels per day agreed in prior meetings.

Adding to the bearish tone, JPMorgan analysts noted that a growing global oil surplus, estimated at 2.2 million barrels per day, may prompt further price corrections. They forecast crude prices will likely stay within current ranges before slipping into the high $50s by year-end.

In the U.S., legal volatility added uncertainty as a federal appeals court reinstated President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, reversing an earlier block. The initial removal had triggered a 1% drop in oil prices on Thursday. Overall, crude has declined over 10% since Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement on April 2.

Meanwhile, demand outlook remains mixed. While U.S. oil consumption surged over Memorial Day, supporting short-term demand, recession fears linked to the trade conflict continue to weigh. Washington’s recent move to halt shipments of ethane and butane to China without a license further strained U.S.-China relations. JPMorgan data shows global oil demand is rising at 400,000 barrels per day—250,000 below expectations as of late May—highlighting lingering demand-side concerns.