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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected not to alter its monetary policy stance at its meeting next week, owing to election-related uncertainties. The RBNZ has run a very consistent line on monetary policy over the past six months, and it seems highly likely that it will play a straight bat again next week.
Just because the RBNZ is likely to play it safe on this occasion, doesn’t mean that monetary policy has gone stale. On the contrary, there is a quite a lot going on beneath the surface. The weak housing market and stalled construction sector are important developments. Both are likely to be the product of tightening financial conditions – people are finding it harder to get loans, and mortgage rates are higher than they were.
The global economy has strengthened further and the US Federal Reserve has edged closer to tightening monetary policy. The Trade Weighted Index is averaging about 1.5 percent lower than the RBNZ’s forecast.
"We expect no change in the OCR next week, and a repeat of previous monetary policy guidance. In time, we expect the RBNZ will have to reduce its GDP and house price forecasts, which will affect the stance of monetary policy," Westpac Research commented in its latest report.
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