China Home Prices Fall Again in June Despite Slower Pace of Decline 
Australia Consumer Sentiment Rises in July as Fuel Price Relief Lifts Confidence 
Dollar Slides as Softer US Inflation Dims Fed Rate Hike Expectations 
Gold Prices Slip as Oil Rally Fuels Inflation Fears, Strengthens Dollar 
South Korea Raises Interest Rates to 2.75% as Inflation and Weak Won Drive Tightening 
Oil Prices Surge as U.S.-Iran Conflict Escalates and Strait of Hormuz Risks Grow 
Asian Currencies Stay Rangebound as Middle East Tensions, Weak China GDP Weigh on Sentiment 
Asian Stocks Rise as Softer U.S. Inflation Boosts Sentiment Despite Middle East Tensions 
Gold Price Holds Near Record High as Cooling U.S. Inflation Offsets Fed Caution 
China Q2 2026 GDP Misses Forecast as Weak Domestic Demand Offsets Export Strength 
US Inflation Expected to Ease in June, but Fed Rate Hike Risks Persist Amid Middle East Tensions 
Gold Price Holds Near $4,000 as Middle East Tensions and Fed Rate Hike Bets Grow 
Asian Currencies Hold Steady as Middle East Tensions Offset Weaker US Dollar 
Oil Prices Rise as U.S. Strikes on Iran Raise Strait of Hormuz Supply Fears 
U.S. Imposes 25% Tariff on Select Brazilian Imports After Section 301 Trade Investigation 
Asian Stocks Slide as Oil Surge, U.S.-Iran Tensions and Fed Rate Bets Weigh on Markets 
Port of Los Angeles Posts Record June Cargo Volume as Importers Rush Ahead of U.S. Tariffs 
After a turbulent year marked by tariff shocks, government shutdown fears, and abrupt immigration policy shifts, the U.S. economy is entering 2026 with momentum that many analysts did not anticipate. Despite facing what MRB Partners describes as a “quadruple policy whammy,” the economy has shown surprising resilience, maintaining growth near its potential and setting the stage for an even stronger performance next year as major fiscal support from President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” begins to take effect.
According to MRB Partners, the front-loaded fiscal stimulus is expected to offset lingering pressures from the ongoing trade war and provide a meaningful lift to overall economic activity. The firm’s strategists note that, barring any new policy shocks, U.S. growth in 2026 is positioned to surpassits potential rate. Real GDP for 2025 is projected to come in around 2%, supported by solid consumer spending and reinforced by high-frequency indicators such as Redbook retail data and the Dallas Fed’s weekly economic index.
Looking ahead, MRB forecasts real GDP growth of roughly 2.4% in 2026. This outlook reflects continued strength in household and corporate financial conditions, steady—though cooler—labor market performance, and ongoing increases in AI-related capital expenditures. Consumer spending, which remains the backbone of U.S. economic expansion, is expected to grow at about 2.2% in real terms. While slower income growth may pressure lower-income households, the anticipated introduction of tax-code changes by the Trump administration is likely to soften the impact.
However, MRB cautions that risks remain, particularly around inflation. Core CPI is expected to remain “sticky above 3%,” fueled by tariff pass-through effects and rising non-rent service costs. Persistent inflation and a stable unemployment rate could leave the Federal Reserve with limited room to cut interest rates further, keeping monetary policy only mildly accommodative.
This mix of fiscal stimulus, consumer resilience, and inflationary pressures will shape the economic landscape in 2026, positioning the U.S. for above-trend growth while keeping policymakers vigilant.
