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After a turbulent year marked by tariff shocks, government shutdown fears, and abrupt immigration policy shifts, the U.S. economy is entering 2026 with momentum that many analysts did not anticipate. Despite facing what MRB Partners describes as a “quadruple policy whammy,” the economy has shown surprising resilience, maintaining growth near its potential and setting the stage for an even stronger performance next year as major fiscal support from President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” begins to take effect.
According to MRB Partners, the front-loaded fiscal stimulus is expected to offset lingering pressures from the ongoing trade war and provide a meaningful lift to overall economic activity. The firm’s strategists note that, barring any new policy shocks, U.S. growth in 2026 is positioned to surpassits potential rate. Real GDP for 2025 is projected to come in around 2%, supported by solid consumer spending and reinforced by high-frequency indicators such as Redbook retail data and the Dallas Fed’s weekly economic index.
Looking ahead, MRB forecasts real GDP growth of roughly 2.4% in 2026. This outlook reflects continued strength in household and corporate financial conditions, steady—though cooler—labor market performance, and ongoing increases in AI-related capital expenditures. Consumer spending, which remains the backbone of U.S. economic expansion, is expected to grow at about 2.2% in real terms. While slower income growth may pressure lower-income households, the anticipated introduction of tax-code changes by the Trump administration is likely to soften the impact.
However, MRB cautions that risks remain, particularly around inflation. Core CPI is expected to remain “sticky above 3%,” fueled by tariff pass-through effects and rising non-rent service costs. Persistent inflation and a stable unemployment rate could leave the Federal Reserve with limited room to cut interest rates further, keeping monetary policy only mildly accommodative.
This mix of fiscal stimulus, consumer resilience, and inflationary pressures will shape the economic landscape in 2026, positioning the U.S. for above-trend growth while keeping policymakers vigilant.
