Market Roundup
- Sterling dips to day's low of $1.4763 after UK trade data from $1.4780 beforehand.
- Greece makes loan payment to IMF.
- Euro Zone Deputy Finance Ministers give Greece 6-day deadline to revise reforms.
- United Kingdom Feb Goods Trade Bal. Non-EU decreases to -3.238 bln GBP (consensus -2.00 bln GBP) vs previous -1.745 bln GBP.
- United Kingdom Feb Goods Trade Balance decreases to -10.340 bln GBP (consensus -9.00 bln GBP) vs previous -8.412 bln GBP.
- United Kingdom Mar Halifax House Price 3M/YY decreases to +8.1 % (consensus 8.2 %) vs previous 8.3 %.
- Germany Feb Trade Balance, SA stays flat at 19.7 bln eur (consensus 20.1 bln eur) vs previous 19.7 bln eur.
- Germany Feb Imports MM SA increases to 1.8 % (consensus 1.2 %) vs previous -0.3 %.
- Germany Feb Industrial Output MM decreases to 0.2 % (consensus 0.2 %) vs previous 0.6 %.
- Germany Feb Exports MM SA increases to 1.5 % (consensus 1.00 %) vs previous -2.10 %.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0830 EDT/1230 GMT) US Initial Jobless Claims, consensus 285k, previous 268k
- (0830 EDT/1230 GMT) Canada Building Permits mm, consensus 5%, previous -12.9%
- (1000 EDT/1400 GMT) US Wholesale Inventories, consensus 0.2%, previous 0.3%
Key Events Ahead
- (0700 EDT/1100GMT) BoE MPC policy announcement, no change in 0.5% bk rate, GBP375bln QE expected
- (1045 EDT/1445GMT) FedTrade 30-year Ginnie Mae (max $1.075 bln)
- (1130 EDT/1530GMT) IMF's Lagarde gives overview of global economy; Washington, DC
- (1230 EDT/1630GMT) IMF's Lagarde on CNBC
FX Recap
EUR/USD remained subdued in the European session and hit session lows at 1.0728 levels. The US dollar remained boosted by hawkish FOMC minutes. The pair currently trades at 1.0738 levels, and the overall bias stays with the bears. Support at 1.0713 level (last week's low) is expected to limit its fall. A break below could push the pair to 1.0688 levels. On the other hand, resistance is located at 1.0788 levels and then at 1.0834 levels. Option expiries at 1.0750-55 (1224M), 1.0800 (1.46BLN).
GBP/USD plunged to one-week lows against on Thursday, after disappointing U.K. trade balance data and markets focused on the Bank of England's policy statement due later in the day. It hit 1.4764 in Europe, lowest since April 1and subsequently consolidated at 1.4784 levels, declining 0.56%. It sees resistance at 1.4974 levels, Wednesday's high, and support at 1.4685, the low of March 19. Option expiries at 1.4660-65 (660M), 1.4750 (826M), 1.4955-70 (650M).
AUD/USD continued moving higher on Thursday and broke above the 0.7700 mark in late Asian session. It currently trades at 0.7715 levels. On the topside, resistance is located at 0.7761 levels (the high of March 30) and a break above will push the pair to 0.7800levels. On the flipside, support is expected to be found at 0.7640 levels (the low of April 7), and then at 0.7600 levels. Option expiries at 0.7685-90 (230M), 0.7705 (294M), 0.745 (444M).
USD/CAD has once again taken support near 1.2380 and slightly recovered till 1.2560 from that level. Overall trend is bullish as long as support 1.2350 holds. On the downside any break below 1.2350 will take the pair further down till 1.2300/1.2250. The pair's minor resistance is around 1.2580 and any break above would extend gains till 1.2650/ /1.27080 in short term. The pair's minor support is around 1.2480 (Kijun-Sen) and any break below will target 1.2420/1.2380.
USD/JPY moved further down in the European session and hit session lows at 120.02 levels. The pair seems to have wiped out all the gains seen due to FOMC minutes and traded in the red on Thursday. On the topside, resistance is seen at 120.39 (Today's High) levels and above which it is likely to test 120.50 levels. On the flipside, support is seen at 120 and then at 119.86 (50-DMA) levels. Option expiries at 119.00 (1.2BLN), 120.00 (565M), 121.00 (1.37BLN).
USD/CHF soared higher and remained boosted in the European session, mainly on euro weakness. It currently trades at 0.9714 levels, breaking beyond the 0.9700 mark. The pair has resistance at 0.9745 levels and above which gains could be extended to 0.9800 levels. On the other hand, support is likely to be found at 0.9650 levels and then at 0.9600 levels.
