Australian Shares Fall as Westpac Slides, Miners Gain Ahead of RBA Decision 
BOJ Rate Hike Expectations Rise Ahead of September Meeting 
China Exports Beat July Forecasts as AI Demand Fuels High-Tech Trade 
Asian Stocks Mixed as Chip Selloff Hits KOSPI, Nikkei Ahead of US Jobs Data 
US Dollar Gains as Iran Tensions, Fed Rate Hike Bets Rise 
Iran-Oman Near Strait of Hormuz Deal as Shipping Tensions Persist 
Asian Stocks Slide as Semiconductor Selloff Weighs on South Korea and Japan 
Asian Stocks Cautious Ahead of US Jobs Data as Oil Rises 
Asian Stocks Rise as Weak US Jobs Data Eases Fed Rate Hike Fears 
Gold Prices Surge 7% as Dollar Falls, Fed Rate Hike Bets Ease 
Japan Posts First Current Account Deficit in 17 Months as Dividend Payments Surge 
Philippine GDP Growth Slows to 2.3% in Q2 
US Dollar Near Two-Month Low as Markets Await Inflation Data 
Japan Executives Warn Weak Yen and Currency Volatility Threaten Economy 
Oil Prices Rise as Hormuz Reopening Remains Uncertain 
US Stock Futures Flat as Iran Strait of Hormuz Demands Fuel Oil Concerns 
A weaker U.S. dollar and falling interest rates usually provide a lift to emerging markets, and this time China—often lagging in global rallies—may benefit from an unusual tailwind. While the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut since December failed to stir U.S. equities, history shows Chinese markets often respond more positively to easier U.S. monetary policy.
UBS analysis highlights that in the six months following the first U.S. rate cut in the last three easing cycles (2007, 2019, and 2024), the MSCI China Index delivered an average return of 11%, beating broader emerging market and global peers by 7 and 13 percentage points. Offshore Chinese stocks such as New York-listed ADRs and Hong Kong H-shares typically outperformed onshore A-shares, though this cycle could prove different.
Tech-heavy segments like internet platforms, data centers, and semiconductor stocks were past winners, rallying over 25% compared to the broader market. However, cyclical and defensive plays—such as energy producers, utilities, and transport operators—lagged, as did high-beta sectors like autos, insurance, and property. The data suggests that rate cuts alone don’t repair structurally weak industries.
Still, sentiment toward China remains fragile. With patchy economic growth, unclear policy signals, and a lack of catalysts beyond low valuations, foreign investors remain cautious. UBS this time favors A-shares, expecting local retail inflows to offset weaker foreign appetite for ADRs.
Looking ahead, UBS forecasts further Fed cuts in October and December, totaling 75 basis points, which could drive the U.S. dollar lower and ease pressure on the yuan. A softer dollar may reduce China’s capital outflows, support funding conditions, and stabilize currency risk.
Investors may not need to believe in a Chinese economic rebound; simply seeing conditions stop worsening could attract flows. With Chinese equities trading at a 30% discount to developed peers, even a modest shift in momentum could offer a much-needed reprieve.
