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China’s November Economic Data Signals Slowing Industrial Output and Weak Consumer Demand 
Wall Street Futures Dip as Broadcom Slides, Tech Weighed Down Despite Dovish Fed Signals 
Japan Business Sentiment Hits Four-Year High, Boosting Expectations of BOJ Rate Hike 
Asian Technology and Chipmaking Stocks Slide as AI Spending Concerns Shake Markets 
U.S. Dollar Slides for Third Straight Week as Rate Cut Expectations Boost Euro and Pound 
Gold Prices Slip Slightly in Asia as Silver Nears Record Highs on Dovish Fed Outlook 
Fed Near Neutral Signals Caution Ahead, Shifting Focus to Fixed Income in 2026 
Korea Zinc Plans $6.78 Billion U.S. Smelter Investment With Government Partnership 
Oil Prices Rebound in Asia as Venezuela Sanctions Risks Offset Ukraine Peace Hopes 
Oil Prices Rebound as U.S.-Venezuela Tensions Offset Oversupply Concerns 
Asian Stocks Slide as Central Bank Decisions and Key Data Keep Investors Cautious 
Russia Stocks End Flat as Energy and Retail Shares Show Mixed Performance 
BOJ Expected to Deliver December Rate Hike as Economists See Borrowing Costs Rising Through 2025 
S&P 500 Slides as AI Chip Stocks Tumble, Cooling Tech Rally 
South Korea Extends Bond Market Stabilization Measures Amid Rising Financial Risks 
A weaker U.S. dollar and falling interest rates usually provide a lift to emerging markets, and this time China—often lagging in global rallies—may benefit from an unusual tailwind. While the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut since December failed to stir U.S. equities, history shows Chinese markets often respond more positively to easier U.S. monetary policy.
UBS analysis highlights that in the six months following the first U.S. rate cut in the last three easing cycles (2007, 2019, and 2024), the MSCI China Index delivered an average return of 11%, beating broader emerging market and global peers by 7 and 13 percentage points. Offshore Chinese stocks such as New York-listed ADRs and Hong Kong H-shares typically outperformed onshore A-shares, though this cycle could prove different.
Tech-heavy segments like internet platforms, data centers, and semiconductor stocks were past winners, rallying over 25% compared to the broader market. However, cyclical and defensive plays—such as energy producers, utilities, and transport operators—lagged, as did high-beta sectors like autos, insurance, and property. The data suggests that rate cuts alone don’t repair structurally weak industries.
Still, sentiment toward China remains fragile. With patchy economic growth, unclear policy signals, and a lack of catalysts beyond low valuations, foreign investors remain cautious. UBS this time favors A-shares, expecting local retail inflows to offset weaker foreign appetite for ADRs.
Looking ahead, UBS forecasts further Fed cuts in October and December, totaling 75 basis points, which could drive the U.S. dollar lower and ease pressure on the yuan. A softer dollar may reduce China’s capital outflows, support funding conditions, and stabilize currency risk.
Investors may not need to believe in a Chinese economic rebound; simply seeing conditions stop worsening could attract flows. With Chinese equities trading at a 30% discount to developed peers, even a modest shift in momentum could offer a much-needed reprieve.
