Yen Weakens to Nine-Month Low as Dollar Strengthens on Reduced Fed Rate-Cut Bets

The Japanese yen slipped to its weakest level in more than nine months in early Asian trading on Tuesday, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and fading expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut. The dollar rose as much as 0.1% to 155.29 yen, marking the Japanese currency’s softest point since February 4. Investors are now turning their attention to the delayed U.S. September payrolls report due Thursday, which could further shape market sentiment.

Japan’s recent currency moves sparked concern from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, who noted that policymakers are “alarmed” by the yen’s rapid, one-sided decline. Her comments underscore growing anxiety about the economic fallout of a weak yen, which raises import costs and strains household spending.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is scheduled to meet Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda later on Tuesday. Takaichi, known for supporting aggressive fiscal stimulus and ultra-loose monetary policy, has appointed like-minded policymakers to key roles—an approach that typically weighs on the yen’s value. Meanwhile, market pricing through the CME FedWatch tool shows the likelihood of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December has dropped to 43%, down sharply from 62% a week ago.

The dollar index also strengthened, rising 0.2% to 99.545 and snapping a four-day slide. Analysts at ING noted that even if the Fed pauses in December, markets expect any hold to be temporary, with upcoming economic data—particularly employment indicators—playing a decisive role.

Fed officials added to the cautious tone on Monday. Governor Christopher Waller highlighted a growing trend of U.S. companies preparing for layoffs amid concerns about slowing demand and potential AI-driven productivity shifts. Vice Chair Philip Jefferson described the labor market as “sluggish,” citing employer hesitation to expand hiring.

Risk sentiment weakened across global markets, dragging U.S. equities lower. Treasury yields were mixed, with the two-year note easing slightly to 3.6039% and the 10-year yield edging up to 4.1366%. Major currencies also softened against the dollar, with the euro trading at $1.1594, sterling at $1.3149, and the Australian dollar at $0.6493, while the New Zealand dollar held steady at $0.56535.