Currency War Series

ECB to cut deposit rate 10bp, extend QE by three months

Nov 30, 2015 23:56 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The ECB is expected to announce a 10bp cut of the deposit rate to -0.3%, a three-month extension of the QE program to December 2016, and an increase in the monthly pace of purchases by 10 billion to 70 billion per month....

Currency War Series

Brazil's COPOM to keep policy rates stable

Nov 30, 2015 22:17 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Last week brought renewed uncertainty on the Brazilian policy outlook. A new round of arrests in the Carwash probe raises questions about the feasibility of passing fiscal measures. At the same time, COPOM delivered a...

Russia's sanctions on Turkey to weigh on growth prospects and delay CBR cuts

Nov 30, 2015 19:55 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The deterioration of trade relations between Russia and Turkey will likely be more detrimental to the Turkish economy. Turkeys Russia related trade income is approximately USD15-16bn (or c.2% of GDP), including exports of...

Currency War Series

ECB expectations adding pressure on euro

Nov 30, 2015 11:56 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

When the ECB launched its 1.1trillion QE programme in March, purchasing 60bn of bonds a month, euro area inflation stood at a minus 0.1pct and has since climbed to 0.1pct, well below the ECB target. In a speech last week...

Currency War Series

RBA likely to end the year on hold

Nov 30, 2015 09:27 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

There is final Reserve Bank of Australias meeting tomorrow, in which the Governor speaks on the economy the next day, just before the release of the GDP for third quarter of this year. We still expect the RBA to remain...

RBA Stevens' advice likely smarter than the originally sounded "Chill out"

Nov 30, 2015 09:18 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Some market participants opined that the depressed situation of commodity markets, tempted the RBA to indicate further rate cuts and also to end the RBA governor Stevens chilling out rhetoric. AUD/USD is currently...

Currency War Series

Poland's NBP likely to cut rates by 50bp in Q1 16

Nov 30, 2015 09:16 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Poland economy was under deflationary pressure in October with the CPI inflation reading at 0.7% y/y. The negative growth rate in price level is expected to continue in November also. The CPI deflation is expected at -0.4%...