ECB cutting the deposit rate further only likely in a much worse scenario

Oct 16, 2015 06:39 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

With headwinds for the euro area coming mainly from external demand, one option for the ECB would be to push for a weaker euro. While the trade elasticityis not what it used to be, a view shared by the ECBs Governing...

Downside risks to Euro area inflation outlook in focus

Oct 16, 2015 06:33 am UTC| Commentary Economy

The recent string of shocks (China, equity market corrections, VW) has brought sizeable downside risks to confidence and the economic outlook. In the recent data, the German August industrial data are probably the most...

RBA rates to remain on hold through 2015 and 2016

Oct 16, 2015 06:23 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

History has showed us that banks tend to move close in time, but in differing amounts, when operating out of cycle with the Reserve Bank of Australia. This reflects the common nature of the funding and regulatory shocks...

Canada to experience weak housing activity next year

Oct 16, 2015 05:59 am UTC| Commentary

Canadas existing home sales fell 2.1% m/m in September and were up just 0.7% from year ago levels. However, sales are still elevated relative to historical norms and it was the second best September on record for homes...

China's Q3 nominal GDP likely to decline in y/y rate

Oct 16, 2015 05:38 am UTC| Commentary

The NBS estimated that China grew at a real rate of 7.0% over the year to Q2, up 1.8% seasonally adjusted vs Q1. Q3 is forecasted to have a 0.2ppt decline in the y/y rate, with risk in both directions but skewed to the...

EUR/TRY to trade at 3.30 in 3 months

Oct 16, 2015 05:28 am UTC| Commentary

New general elections are scheduled for 1 November in Turkey. Political uncertainty is high. The central bank adds to uncertainty by announcing changes to its monetary policy instruments. Political pressure still prevents...

PBoC's RRR cuts likely in Q4 2015

Oct 16, 2015 05:20 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Despite a rebound in new loans, the weak growth and PPI deflation still point to the need for an interest rate cut. The tepid PMIs and deteriorating imports point to a further weakening in growth in September. PBoCs one...