Brazil’s S&P rating: A negative outlook means the clock has started to tick

Jul 28, 2015 21:35 pm UTC| Commentary

Today SP put the Brazil sovereign rating (BBB-) outlook to negative, citing a one-year time horizon in order to re-assess the fundamentals of the economy as well as the fiscal indicators. Among the factors that drove the...

US July consumer confidence considerably missed expectations

Jul 28, 2015 20:54 pm UTC| Commentary

The US July consumer confidence considerably missed expectations, with the headline print showing a sizable decline to 90.9 (est. 100.0) from 99.8 prior."Our US strategists note how rare such disappointments are, in...

UK GDP grew by 0.7% q/q, in line with market expectations

Jul 28, 2015 20:45 pm UTC| Commentary

The UK GDP grew by 0.7% q/q, in line with market expectations. Not surprisingly, the services sector (78% of economy) was the main driver as it grew 0.7% q/q while IP expanded 1.0% q/q. In terms of policy implications, the...

US services PMI rose to 55.2, beating expectations

Jul 28, 2015 20:26 pm UTC| Commentary

The US services PMI rose to 55.2, beating expectations. House prices for 20 cities rose 1.1% in May, for a yoy gain of 4.9% (disappointing expectations of 5.6%). Consumer confidence (Conference Board) slumped 9% in July,...

Russia: CBR likely to pause in July

Jul 28, 2015 16:53 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Russia financial conditions have been changing as global oil prices have declined rapidly in recent months, down nearly 25% since early May. The RUB has accordingly been hit, down 22% since mid-May and depreciating more...

Brazil monetary policy: State of stagflation?

Jul 28, 2015 16:34 pm UTC| Commentary

Prior to the 3rd June SELIC decision we were of the view that Julys meeting would likely mark the end of Brazils tightening cycle with a 25bp hike to 14.00%. The statement that accompanied the June decision caused us to...

The Chinese exodus continues: part 2

Jul 28, 2015 16:01 pm UTC| Commentary

The Chinese sell off resumes. After three weeks of successful turnaround in the Chinese market due to significant government intervention including frozen trading, suspended IPOs, and a $500 billion rescue fund, the...