UK retail sales to manage only modest, if any, growth

Mar 26, 2015 06:17 am UTC| Commentary

The path of sales has been heavily distorted by the Black Friday sales campaign which boosted sales in November by 1.6% mom followed by dips of 0.1% in December and 0.7% in January.Societe Generale says given the size of...

France 2014 Budget deficit below target

Mar 26, 2015 06:13 am UTC| Commentary

The French public deficit is expected to increase from 4.1% of GDP in 2013 to 4.2% in2014, according to Societe Generale. It is slightly better than expected by the government last summer (target 4.4% of GDP).The...

Euroarea monetary and credit dynamics likely improved in February

Mar 26, 2015 06:08 am UTC| Commentary

Money supply in the euro area has shown uninterrupted growth since last May, and this trend to have continued in February.According to Societe Generale, M3 probably rose by 4.2% yoy, which would bring the three-month...

No AUD bounce means no option activation

Mar 26, 2015 05:58 am UTC| Commentary

"Investors cannot lose more than the premium initially paid", says Societe Generale. If AUD/USD does not touch the0.80 knock-in level, the option will not be activated and owning it will therefore not allow for taking...

Buy 3M AUD/USD put strike 0.76, knock-in 0.80: Societe Generale

Mar 26, 2015 05:53 am UTC| Commentary

Societe Generale expects the option to be knocked-in in the very short term. A disappointment at the next RBA meeting (no cut) would lift the AUD. This would activate the option and make it ready for a May cut.The negative...

Catch AUD timing while Buying downside volatility: Societe Generale

Mar 26, 2015 05:50 am UTC| Commentary

As imminent weakness is not the central scenario, cheapening AUD puts in selling low strikes to obtain a long theta structure could make sense. However, volatility is very likely to rise when the currency falls, and this...

RBA to cool policy again

Mar 26, 2015 05:48 am UTC| Commentary

It is extremely likely that the RBA will cut rates at its 7 April meeting or at the latest at the subsequent meeting on 5 May.Societe Generale says the renewed currency strength would raise the already high likelihood of...